目录摘要............................................................1Abstract......................................................................................................................2第一章绪论.............................................................................................................31.1论文的研究背景及意义.........................................................................31.1.1研究背景.......................................................................................31.1.2研究意义.......................................................................................31.1.3行文结构.......................................................................................3第二章需求预测研究.............................................................................................52.1需求预测相关概念.................................................................................52.2需求预测方法.........................................................................................62.2.1预测方法概述...............................................................................62.2.2常见的预测方法...........................................................................62.3需求预测研究现状.................................................................................72.4本章小结.................................................................................................8第三章灰色预测模型研究.....................................................................................93.1灰色系统概述.........................................................................................93.2灰色预测模型研究.................................................................................93.2.1GM(1,1)模型概述.........................................................................93.2.2GM(1,1)模型研究.........................................................................93.3本章小结...............................................................................................11第四章原材料需求预测案例研究.......................................................................124.1案例概述...............................................................................................124.2简单移动法预测...................................................................................134.2.1简单移动平均法概述.................................................................134.2.3预测结果分析.............................................................................134.2.2简单移动平均法预测.................................................................144.3指数平滑法预测及结果分析...............................................................154.4灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测................................................................184.4.1GM(1,1)模型预测.......................................................................184.4.2GM(1,1)模型误差检验...............................................................204.5三种预测模型的比较分析...................................................................234.6本章小结...............................................................................................24结论.........................................................................................................................25参...
