附件九：Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲主要竞争对手业绩不佳，99年1~3季度软件销售额增长率（同比上年）如下：99年第一季度99年第二季度99年第三季度Oracle5%28%11%PeopleSoft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业绩不佳的主要原因是：•向e-business方向转变太慢•销售队伍严重流失•在客户关系管理领域（CRM）落后•处在产品转型阶段风险大•分析家们对它们近期前景亦不看好（详细内容请参阅下面文章）---------------------------------------------BothSAPandPSFTmadedisappointingpre-announcementslastweekindicatingtheirresultsforQ3wouldbeweakerthananalystsexpected.Finalresultsforbothcompanieswerereleasewithinthepasttwodays.InSAPreportedfinalQ3numbersinlinewithpre-announcedresultsof(7%)totalrevenuegrowthand(26%)purelicensegrowth.Analystagreedtherevisionsweresignificantandthepotentialforfurtherdownsideisgreaterthanthelikelihoodofanyupsideinthenear-term.TheUS-basedbusinesscontinuestostruggle,withmoderateimprovementintheAsia/Pacificregion.Theprimarysurpriseforthequartercamefromhigher-than-expectedoperatingexpensesasSAPcontinuestoinvestheavilyinR&Dandmarketingtosupportitsnewlylaunched"internetstrategy".Averagerevenuepernewsalefellsignificantlyasaresultofincreasedmid-marketsales,incrementalsalestotheinstalledbase,lowerpricedadd-ons,andmoreprospectsbuyinginsmallerchunks.TheoverwhelmingconsensusamongtheanalystsforSAPisanenvironmentcharacterizedbyanumberofchallenges,includingatoughmacroeconomicsituation,continuedsalesforceattrition(especiallyintheU.S.),andacomplicatedandlatetransitioninanefforttobecomeaninternet-enabledback-andfront-officeapplicationprovider.Furthermore,analystsexpressedconcernwiththefundamentaltrendofSAP'sdecreasinghigh-marginlicenserevenuecoupledwiththeirincreasinglow-marginconsultingrevenue.Theconsensusfollowingmanagement'scommentswaspredominantlycharacterizedascautiouslyuncertain,withnoclearlyavailablecatalysttogeneratenear-terminterestinthestock.PSFT'sreportedQ3resultswereinlinewiththerecentdownwardlyrevisedguidancegivenintheCompany'sOctober11thpre-release.Licenserevenueforthequarterwasdown67%yearoveryear,withmanagementattributingtheshortfalltothecontinuedsoftdemandforPSFT'scoreback-officeapplications,especiallyintheU.S.marketplace.TwonotedconcernsamonganumberofanalystsincludeissuessurroundingPSFT'slackofcompetitivenessinashifttoae-businessdrivenmarketplaceaswellasPSFT'sinabilitytoretaintalentedindividuals.Thehard-to-answerquestionremainsthetimingforapotentialrecoveryasPSFTshiftsitsproductbasetowardse-businesssolutionsandeventuallyintegratesfront-officesupplierVantive.Analysts'currentexpectationsareforsomerecoverybeginninginearly2000,butacknowledgethattransitionrisksremain,andcautioninvestorsthatitissafertoremainonthesidelinesinthenear-term.Overall,theanalysts'sentimenttowardsPSFTwassimilartothatofSAP--you'rebehindthetimesandhavequiteawaytocatchup!Asaresult,neitherrepresentsathreattoORCLintheforeseeablefuture.SummaryofResults:ERPlicenserevenuecomparison:YoYpurelicensegrowth:CYQ1CYQ2CYQ3ORCL5%28%11%PSFT(44%)(61%)(67%)SAP(8%)(15%)(26%)SAPOperatingMargin:7.3%vs19.3%inQ398PeoplesoftOperatingMargin:1.5%vs18.6%inQ398AnalystQuotes:-NeilHerman,SalomonSmithBarney"While,inourview,themacroeconomicenvironmentfortheERPplayersmayhavestoppedgettingworse,SAPhassomeworktodoregardingitsmySAPandInternetinitiatives.Therefore,weareinclinedtobelievethatthismaynotbethelastdisappointingearningsannouncementbeforethecompanyemergesfromtheforest."-DevikaMalik,J.P.Morgan"WethinkthatSAP'sweakthird-quarterresultsareduetotwofactors:(1.)basedonourongoingdiscussionswithCIOs(headofIT),webelievethatcompaniesarecompletingtheirY2Kremediationworkandnewprojectswillnotstartuntilfourth-quarter1999attheearliest;and(2.)wefeelthatthereisalsoaproducttransitionissue.SAPlaunchedmySAP.cominmid-SeptemberandordersforSAP'sR3productswillprobablysufferascustomersreviewthenewerinternetenabledsolution."-StevePalfrey,Bernstein"WecontinuetoseeevidenceinthemarketthePSFTishavingtofightconcernsinthemarketaboutitslongtermstrength.Webelievethattoregainitsmomentuminthemarketplace,PSFTneedstofocusitenergyonafewverticalmarketswhereitcandifferentiateitselffromORCLandSAP.WecontinuetoratePeopleSoftmarketperform.UntilPeopleSoftshowssignsthatitcanregainthemarketshareithaslostthisyearandbeatestimatesin2000,itisunlikelytooutperform.However,giventhelowexpectationsforlicensegrowthinthenearterm,significantdownsidetothestockalsoappearsunlikely."-RichScocozza,BearSterns"WebelievetheongoingweaknessinproductlicenserevenueisduetocoreERPmarketsaturationandshiftingsoftwarepriorities,particularlytowarde-commerce.Companiesaremoreconcernedaboutbuildingaconnectedbusiness,andPeopleSoftisplayingcatchupintermsofexploitingthisopportunity."MarketSummary,October20,1999:DOWINDU10392.36+187.4(+1.84%)NASDAQ2788.13+99.95(+3.72%)ORCL443/4+15/16(+2.1%)PSFT149/16-7/16(-2.9%)SAP341/2-2(-5.5%)
