财务预警系统在财务管理中应用评价摘要随着中国加入WTO,面对经济全球化浪潮的冲击，面对入世后大举抢滩中国市场的跨国公司的挑战，面对知识经济时代口益加剧的市场竞争压力，我国企业所面临的各种风险在不断的加剧。为了在激烈的竞争中立于不败之地，使企业健康有序的发展，防范财务风险成为当务之急，建立一套有效的财务风险预警系统势在必行。对财务风险预警系统的研究有重要的经济价值，但目前还处在一种前沿性和创新性的研究阶段。本文旨在以各种与财务预警相关的理论为基础，探讨财务风险预警系统的建立与运行，并对财务风险预警的分析方法进行了综合分析与评价，通过对多种财务风险预警模型的比较分析，选择适合我国企业的预警模型，并将预测性较好的模型应用于实际。目的是使财务风险预警模型在我国企业得到广泛的发展与应用。关键词财务风险预警；预警模型；预警方法；预警机制AbstractWithChina'saccessiontotheWTO,facingtheimpactofeconomicglobalizationtide,facingWTOinChinesemarketofmultinationalcompanies,subordinatetotheeraofknowledgeeconomy,facingthechallengeofthemarketcompetitionintensifiedethermouthpressure,ourcountryenterprisefacesallsortsofrisksincontinuetogrow.Inthefiercecompetition,thehealthyandorderlydevelopmentofenterprise,preventingfinancialrisksurgent,establishinganeffectivefinancialriskpre-warningsystemimperative.Forfinancialriskpre-warningsystemresearchhasimportanteconomicvalue,butalsoisakindofadvancedandinnovativeresearchstage.Thispaper,takingvariousfinancialpre-warningrelatedwiththetheoreticalbasis,financialriskpre-warningsystemestablishmentandoperation,andtoadvancewarningoffinancialriskanalysismethod,throughthecomprehensiveanalysisandevaluationofvariousfinancialriskpre-warningmodelofcomparativeanalysisofChineseenterprises,choosesuitablewarningmodel,andpredictivegoodmodelappliedinpractice.Thepurposeistomakefinancialriskpre-warningmodelinourcountryenterprisewidelydevelopmentandapplication.KeywordsFinancialriskearly-warning;Early-warningmodel;Early-warningmethod;Early-warningmechanism目录摘要................................................................IAbstract............................................................II第1章绪论.........................................................11.1财务预警的背景及目的.........................................11.2国内外研究现状和研究成果.....................................11.2.1国外研究现状...........................................11.2.2国内研究现状...........................................3第2章财务风险预警系统构建的相关理论...............................42.1财务风险及预警理论概述.......................................42.1.1财务风险的概念.........................................42.1.2财务风险的成因.........................................52.1.3财务风险和财务预警的关系...............................62.2财务风险预警系统构建的理论依据...............................82.2.1现代财务理论...........................................82.2.2系统信息理论..........................................102.2.3基于内部控制的财务预警系统............................11第3章企业财务风险预警方法的综合分析与评价........................133.1财务风险预警分析方法的类型..................................133.1.1单变量预警分析和多变量预警分析........................133.1.2指标判断和因素判断....................................133.1.3定性分析和定量分析....................................133.2定性分析法..................................................143.2.1标准化调查法........................................
