摘要随着国际经济的不断发展，经济全球化成为大势所趋，跨国公司的外国直接投资行为已成为全球经济中重要的部分。中国的对外直接投资很大一部分集中于东南亚地区，国内外许多学者针对中国对大湄公河次区域和中国对东盟的直接投资问题进行了研究，并得出了一些结论，对指导实践有着重要意义。但是只有少数人从某一国家的角度进行分析，对泰国的研究更是鲜有，因而中国对泰国直接投资的相关问题值得我们探索。本文在对中国对泰国直接投资的现状进行阐述后，进一步探究了中国对泰国直接投资的效应，其中创造效应显著，转移效应具有不确定性，贸易效应和逆向技术溢出效应不显著。之后从政治、经济、文化、法律的角度分别指出了影响中国对泰国直接投资的因素，并对经济因素进项了实证分析，通过建立VAR模型，得出了短期内中国对泰国直接投资规模受前期投资规模影响较大，与泰国工资水平和市场开放程度负相关，受中国对泰国出口量影响较小的结论。最后基于对各方面影响因素的讨论，本文认为中国政府应当完善海外投资保险机制，从而提高跨国企业的抗风险能力，同时加强中泰两国民间文化交流，改善中国制造在泰形象；企业应当把握中泰经济发展的机遇，促进企业对泰国直接投资。关键词：对外直接投资；泰国；影响因素；VAR模型AbstractWiththecontinuousdevelopmentoftheinternationaleconomy,economicglobalizationhasbecomeageneraltrend,andtheforeigndirectinvestmentbehavioroftransnationalcorporationshasbecomeanimportantpartoftheglobaleconomy.AlargepartofChina'sforeigndirectinvestmentisconcentratedinSoutheastAsia.ManyscholarsathomeandabroadhaveconductedresearchonChina'sdirectinvestmentintheGreaterMekongSub-regionandASEAN,andhavedrawnsomeconclusions,whichareofgreatsignificanceforguidingpractice.However,onlyafewpeopleanalyzefromtheperspectiveofacertaincountry,andtherearefewstudiesonThailand.Therefore,theissuesrelatedtoChina'sdirectinvestmentinThailanddeserveourexploration.AfterelaboratingonthecurrentsituationofChina'sdirectinvestmentinThailand,thispaperfurtherexplorestheeffectsofChina'sdirectinvestmentinThailand.Amongthem,thecreationeffectissignificant,thetransfereffectisunstable,andthetradeeffectandreversetechnologyspillovereffectarenotsignificant.Afterwards,thefactorsinfluencingChina'sdirectinvestmentinThailandwerepointedoutfromtheperspectivesofpolitics,economy,cultureandlaw,andanempiricalanalysisofeconomicfactorswascarriedout.ByestablishingaVARmodel,itwasconcludedthatintheshorttermthescaleofChina'sdirectinvestmentinThailandisgreatlyaffectedbythesizeofthepreviousinvestment,isnegativelyrelatedtoThailand'swagelevelandmarketopenness,andislessaffectedbyChina'sexportstoThailand.Finally,basedonthediscussionofvariousinfluencingfactors,thispapersuggeststhattheChinesegovernmentshouldimprovetheoverseasinvestmentinsurancemechanismtoimprovetheanti-riskcapabilitiesoftransnationalcorporations,andatthesametimestrengthentheculturalexchangesbetweenChinaandThailandtoimprovetheimageofChinesemanufacturinginThailand;companiesshouldgraspopportunitiesofChina-ThailandeconomicdevelopmenttopromotedirectinvestmentinThailand.Keywords:Outwardforeigndirectinvestment;Thailand;influencingfactors;VARmodel目录1导论....................................................................11.1选题背景与意义..........................................................11.2国内外文献综述..........................................................11.3论文的结构及主要内容....................................................31.4论文的研究方法..........................................................42中国对泰国直接投资现状...............
