I2017届国际经济与贸易专业毕业论文摘要近年来,随着我国经济持续快速发展,人民币面临着空前的升值压力,这必然会在一定程度上对纺织业的出口产生影响。在中国不断加快人民币汇率改革的进程中，交织着世界经济不景气、局部地区政局不稳定等各种因素。影响汇率变动的因素日趋复杂，且由于我国政府扩宽了人民币汇率的波动区间，这使得汇率波动越来越剧烈而频繁。而浙江省是中国纺织品的生产大省和出口大省，纺织产业在全省的工业生产和出口贸易中占有举足轻重的地位。同时，浙江纺织产业在国内乃至国际上有着重要的影响，表现出较强的竞争优势。全球纺织品配额的取消曾给浙江纺织业注入短暂的活力，但随之而来的“特保”措施与人民币升值使浙江纺织品出口处于双重压力之下。利用中国2002年~2016年人民币兑美元的汇率、浙江纺织品出口额以及浙江省人均国民收入等相关的年度数据,运用Eviews6.0软件建立单位根、协整检验及ECM模型,并对模型进行实证检验。结果表明：汇率的波动与纺织业的出口的相互影响的，但是在短期内汇率对纺织品的出口没有显著的影响。关键词：汇率的波动，纺织品出口，影响分析人民币汇率波动对浙江纺织品出口的影响分析ABSTRACTInrecentyears,withthesustainedandrapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy,theRMBisfacingunprecedentedpressuretoappreciate,whichisboundtoexportdependenceextileindustryhaveanimportantimpactonexports.InChina,theprocessofacceleratingthereformoftheRMBexchangerate,intertwinedwiththeworldeconomicdownturn,localpoliticalinstabilityandotherfactors.Thefactorsthataffecttheexchangeratechangearebecomingmoreandmorecomplicated,andbecauseofthewideningofthefluctuationrangeoftheRMBexchangerate,theexchangeratefluctuatesmoreandmorefrequently.ZhejiangProvinceisChina'stextileproductionprovinceandexportprovince,thetextileindustryintheprovince'sindustrialproductionandexporttradeoccupiesapivotalposition.Atthesametime,Zhejiangtextileindustryinthecountryandtheinternationalcommunityhasanimportantimpact,showingastrongcompetitiveadvantage.Theabolitionoftheglobalquotaoftextileshasinjectedashort-termvitalityintotheZhejiangtextileindustry,buttheensuing"specialsafeguard"measuresandtheappreciationoftherenminbisothatZhejiangtextileexportsunderdoublepressure.BasedontheannualdataofChina'sRMBexchangeratefromRMB2002to2016,ZhejiangtextileexportsandpercapitanationalincomeofZhejiangProvince,Eows6.0softwarewasusedtoestablishtheunitroot,co-integrationtestandECMmodel,andthemodelwasvalidatedtest.Theresultsshowthatexchangeratefluctuationsaffecttheexportofthetextileindustry,butintheshorttermtheexchangeratehasnosignificantimpactontheexportofthetextileindustry.Keywords:exchangeratechanges,textileindustry,exports,impact目录摘要....................................................................IABSTRACT................................................................II引言....................................................................2一、文献回顾.............................................................3（一）相关汇率理论研究发展综述........................................3(二)国外相关研究成果及动态............................................4(三)国内相关研究成果及动态............................................5三、浙江纺织品的出口现状及存在的问题.....................................6（一）浙江纺织品的出口现状............................................6（二）浙江纺织品存在的问题............................................9四、汇率变动的状况......................................................11（一）人民币汇率机制的发展阶段.......................................11（二...
