基于现金流量的企业价值评估—以奥飞娱乐为例摘要资本市场在我国经济发展过程中也发挥着重要的不可替代的作用，但我国资本市场还不完善，尤其是以散户为主的投资主体在投资股票时极容易出现追涨杀跌，价值投资理念还不深入，严重影响着证券市场的稳定发展。因此树立正确的价值投资理念、正确合理地评估企业的价值对投资者尤其是中小投资者具有重大的意义。随着我国高新技术企业的发展，资本市场上对高新技术企业也给了比较理性的估值，高新技术企业经过多年的沉淀已形成了一套完整的产业链，高新技术企业的投资价值也越来越显现。奥飞娱乐作为一家具有竞争力的高新技术企业，其市场规模在不断扩大，其价值更是不言而喻，所以，本文以奥飞娱乐作为研究对象具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对A公司进行了介绍，选用DCF模型对A公司1进行价值分析，同时探讨A公司所在高新技术企业DCF模型过程中未来现金流的预估。在分析的基础上结合A公司目前的经营状况给出了几点具有建设性的意见供投资者参考。关键词：高新技术企业；DCF模型；企业价值评估2AbstractThecapitalmarketalsoplaysanimportantandirreplaceableroleintheprocessofChina'seconomicdevelopment.However,China'scapitalmarketisstillnotperfect,especiallytheinvestmententitiesbasedonretailinvestorsareverypronetochasingupanddownwheninvestinginstocks.Notyetdeep,seriouslyaffectingthestabledevelopmentofthesecuritiesmarket.Therefore,establishingacorrectvalueinvestmentphilosophyandcorrectlyandreasonablyassessingthevalueofthecompanyisofgreatsignificancetoinvestors,especiallysmallandmediuminvestors.WiththedevelopmentofChina'shigh-techenterprises,thehigh-techenterpriseshavealsogivenarelativelyrationalvaluationinthecapitalmarket.Afteryearsofprecipitation,high-tech3enterpriseshaveformedacompleteindustrialchain,andtheinvestmentvalueofhigh-techenterpriseshasalsoincreased.Itismoreandmoreapparent.Asacompetitivehigh-techenterprise,Acompany'smarketscaleisconstantlyexpanding,anditsvalueisself-evident.Therefore,thispaperhasimportantpracticalsignificanceasanenterprise.ThispaperfirstintroducesCompanyA,selectsDCFmodeltoanalyzethevalueofCompanyA,anddiscussestheestimationoffuturecashflowintheprocessofDCFmodelofAcompany.Onthebasisoftheanalysis,combinedwiththecurrentoperatingstatusofCompanyA,severalconstructivecommentsweregivenforinvestors'reference.Keywords:high-techenterprise;DCFmodel;enterprisevalue4assessment目录摘要..............................................................................................................1Abstract.........................................................................................................21引言.............................................................................................................31.1研究背景及意义..........................................................................31.1.1研究背景..............................................................................31.1.2研究意义..............................................................................41.3国内外研究现状...................................................................52企业价值评估概述................................................................................652.1企业价值评估方法.....................................................................62.2估值方法的选择..........................................................................72.3估值模型简述...............................................................................73高新技术企业价值评估—以奥飞娱乐为例............................
