摘要银行业大规模出现不良贷款问题时,整个国家的金融安全和市场繁荣都会受到严峻挑战。依据相关的统计数据资料,中国农业银行在不良贷款问题上是一个典型的代表,本文将通过构建一个多元回归模型,采用2008-2015年的宏观经济数据和农业银行财务报表中的数据,借此来解释为什么中国农业银行的不良贷款率高于其他银行水平这一问题。本文希望通过研究农行的不良贷款问题形成原因和影响因素,为全银行业降低不良贷款带来启示。经过实证研究,银行业首先要注重改善自身的经营管理行为,尤其是要保证能够维持一个较高的资本充足率;其次商业银行需要发掘新的金融业务增长点,增强自身的盈利能力,这也可以提高商业银行对于抵御风险资产的能力。关键词:商业银行;不良贷款;中国农业银行;实证分析AbstractIn2015,theAgriculturalBankofChinanon-performingloansinthemaintenanceoflow-runningformanyyearsafterthesuddenrapidincreaseinthetrend,thethirdquarterof2015becameChina'sonlynon-performingloanratioofmorethan2%oflistedbanksinChina'scommercialbanksinthenon-performingloanrateTop.Inthispaper,thedefinitionandclassificationmethodsofNPLsareclearlydefined,andthedataof2008-2015areanalyzedthroughthemultipleregressionmodel.Theresultsshowthatthenon-performingloanratioofAgriculturalBankofChinaisnegativelyrelatedtothegrowthrateofGDP,themoneysupplyM2,thebank'scapitaldebtratio,thebank'sprovisioncoverageratioandthebank'snetinterestmargin.Theratioofloanstototalliabilitiesispositivelycorrelatedwithloans.Inordertopreventanddissolvethenon-performingloans,themostimportantthingistoraisethecapitaladequacyratio,strengthentheabilityofresistingrisksandcontrolthecreditrisk.Improvingthemanagementleveloftheagriculturalbankcanhelpdecreasethenon-performingloanratiooftheAgriculturalBankofChina.Keywords:Commercialbank,Non-performingloans,AgriculturalBankofChina,Empiricalanalysis目录1引言....................................................................11.1研究背景及意义.........................................................11.2文献综述...............................................................11.2.1对于影响商业银行不良贷款的因素分析...................................11.2.2对减少不良贷款的措施和建议的研究.....................................11.3研究内容...............................................................22有关不良贷款的定义及分类方法............................................23中国农业银行不良贷款现状...............................................3-54中国农业银行不良贷款率产生原由..........................................54.1模型变量选取..........................................................54.2影响中国农业银行不良贷款率相关因素剖析................................64.3数据来源..............................................................64.4实证分析..............................................................74.4.1多元回归模型的设计..................................................74.4.2回归分析.............................................................84.4.3实证研究结论........................................................95结论及建议...............................................................9参考文献.................................................................10附录..................................................................11-161引言1.1研究背景及意义当银行业大规模地出现不良贷款问题时,整个国家的金融安全和市场繁荣都会受到威胁。在目前的实际情形中,中国银行的不良贷款问题具有一定的严重性,但是中国农业银行在这一问题上比中国银行更加...