摘要为了应对人口老龄化、劳动资源匮乏等问题，我国与2016年开始实施“全面二孩”的政策。随着“全面二孩”政策的实施，研究政策实施后人们的生育意愿会如何改变、生育率会如何发展、影响生育率变动的因素有哪些，有利于为调节我国的生育状况、改善人口年龄结构提供理论依据。为了应对人口问题，政府不断改进人口政策，具体措施表现在从双独二孩政策到单独二孩政策再到现在正在推进中的全面二孩政策，在此过程中政府不断尝试不断改变，但目前生育率却依旧不能达到预期水平，对于提高生育率政府依然需要不断完善政策提高保障水平。本文以实证分析和理论分析为主，分析全面二孩政策下河北省城镇居民生育率的影响因素，并结合国外成功经验提出提高生育率的几点建议，为政府提供理论依据与数据支持。本文主要以河北省为研究区域，首先通过调查问卷的形式对“全面二孩”政策实施后城镇家庭生育二孩的意愿进行调查，在回收问卷之后对问卷所得数据及其他相关数据进行整理分析，然后利用队列要素法结合人口预测软件预测出河北省的人口走向。整理之后在对生育率的影响因素进行分析时采用二元离散选择模型。研究结果显示：自“全面二孩”政策实施以来，河北省的二孩生育率并没有明显的提高。通过对河北省的人口预测得出该省未来要面临的人口老龄化程度依旧不容乐观，并且呈现出了不断上升的趋势，“全面二孩”政策实施效果未达预期。经过对生育率的影响因素分析发现：是否生育二孩主要受到了夫妻的身份特征、个人经济收入、性别偏好等因素影响显著。最后针对全面二孩政策背景下河北省城镇家庭生育率的影响因素提出了提高生育率相关建议，希望通过这些政策建议可以推动“全面二孩”政策更好地实施。关键词：全面二孩；生育率；影响因素；河北省AbstractInresponsetoagingpopulation,lackoflaborresourcesandotherissues,Chinabeganimplementingthepolicyof“Theuniversaltwo-child”policyin2016.Withtheimplementationofthe"Theuniversaltwo-child"policy,howwillpeople'sfertilitydesireschangeaftertheimplementationofthepolicy,howwillthefertilityratedevelop,andwhatfactorsaffectthechangesinthefertilityratewillbeconducivetoregulatingfertilityinourcountryandimprovingpopulationage.Inordertocopewiththepopulationproblem,thegovernmenthasconstantlyimproveditspopulationpolicy,fromthefirsttwochildpolicytothelatertwochildpolicy,andthentothecurrenttwochildpolicy.Thegovernmentisconstantlytryingtochangethepolicy,butthefertilityrateisstillunabletoreachtheexpectedlevelforthegovernmenttoraisethefertilityrate.Westillneedtoconstantlyimprovepoliciesandraisethelevelofprotection.Thispaperfocusesonempiricalanalysisandtheoreticalanalysis,analyzestheinfluencingfactorsofurbanresidents'fertilityrateinHebeiProvinceunderthecomprehensivetwo-childpolicy,andproposesseveralsuggestionsforimprovingfertilityratebasedonforeignsuccessfulexperience,providingtheoreticalsupportanddatasupportforthegovernment.ThisarticletakesHebeiProvinceasanexample.Itfirstinvestigatedthesecondchild'sfertilitydesireofurbanhouseholdsaftertheimplementationofthe“comprehensivetwo-child”policy,andthenusedthequeueelementmethodandthepopulationforecastsoftwaretoconductthepopulationofHebeiProvincethroughquestionnairesandotherrelevantdata.Thepredictionswerefinallyanalyzedbyusingthebinarydiscreteselectionmodeltodeterminethefactorsaffectingthefertilityrateofthesecondchild.Thestudyfoundthatafterthe"comprehensivetwo-child"policywasimplemented,therewasnosignificantincreaseinthefertilityrateofsecond-bornchildreninHebeiProvince.ThefutureofHebei'spopulationisstillveryserious,anditisshowingarisingtrend.Theimplementationofthe"two-child"policyhasnotachievedtheexpectedresults.Afteranalyzingtheinfluencingfactors...
