下载后可任意编辑施工导流联合泄流计算模型及导流方案风险分析甄红锋 1 柴换成 2（1. 2. 山东水利职业学院 山东 日照 276826）摘 要：通过分别讨论明渠导流、隧洞导流以及坝体缺口导流的水力计算，提出切实可行的联合泄流水力计算模型。在施工导流系统联合泄流能力的计算基础上，采纳 Monte-Carlo 方法，模拟施工期洪水入库过程和导流建筑物的泄流工况，用系统仿真方法进行施工洪水调洪演算得到堰前水位的随机样本数据通过聚类分析确定导流系统动态风险。实例验证说明，施工导流联合泄流水力计算以及风险分析计算模型是可靠的、适用的。关键词：施工导流；联合泄流；风险分析；Monte-Carlo 方法；聚类分析分类号: TV6Computational Model for Joint Discharge and Risk Analysis of Construction Diversion SchemesHongfeng Zhen 1，Huancheng Chai（1. 2. Shandong Water Polytechnic, Rizhao, 276826）Abstract: Through the separate analysis of channel diversion 、 tunnel diversion and dam gap discharge, this paper establishes the computational model for joint discharge during construction by applying the hydraulic computation theory. On the joint discharge basis of construction diversion system, using the Monte-carlo method to simulate the flood and discharge process, the risk model analyses the distribution of the flood level in front of the cofferdam and dynamic risk under different diversion standard by flood routing model and the cluster analysis model. The case study institutes that the computational model for joint discharge and risk analysis model of construction diversion schemes are reasonable and effective.Key words: construction diversion; joint discharge; risk analysis; Monte-Carlo method; cluster analysis1. 引言施工导流工程是风险工程，在进行导流方案确定、导流方式选择、设计优化时，工程的风险应作为一个指标参加决策，所以如何确定施工导流工程的综合风险就显得十分重要。目前，施工导流工程中所存在的风险问题己经引起广泛的重视，并将风险与导流标淮[1]的选择联系起来进行讨论。而进行...
