22项目风险管理,蒙特卡洛法MicrosoftOfficeExcel工作表

项目概率累计概率 随机数范围对应的随机数码可能值0.30.31~3018000 系统分区分布区间0.40.731~703110000-5 0 0 0-5 0 0 0 以下0.31 71~10071120000-5 0 0 0 ～0.20.21~2012000 4 0 0 00 ～4 0 0 00.60.821~80214000 8 0 0 04 0 0 0 ～8 0 0 00.21 81~100816000 1 2 0 0 08 0 0 0 ～1 2 0 0 01 6 0 0 01 2 0 0 0 ～1 6 0 0 0NPV（10%，5）2 0 0 0 01 6 0 0 0 以上随机抽取的号可能值随机抽取的号码可能值8212000244000316318800030400071637412000624000316325800059400071631780004940007163258000604000716348100005840005163671000077400051639812000202000-441856100003240005163321000081600012745580005640007163521000072000-241862100009860001274560100007940005163168000826000147458412000192000-441848100007240005163661000083600012745551000088600012745511000081600012745158000664000716394120006640003163361000051400051633910000474000516360100007540005163731200086600010745841200061400031630#N/A524000#N/A7712000364000316319800021400071639312000444000316372120003240003163661000025400051635210000836000127455110000754000516339100007140005163投资额现金流量前10次现金流量模拟结果投资额现金流量00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.450.558100008460001274523800055400071631680008760001474512800099600014745881200057400031634010000142000-241839100003540005163791200032000-441899120005540003163680006340007163491000067400051637312000624000316398000274000716370100002740005163711200026400031633910000324000516354100004740005163411000044400051635210000344000516349100007440005163258000634000716345100002840005163298000294000716348000102000-41870100007840005163108000112000-418461000052400051639412000142000-44187010000946000127450#N/A334000#N/A7010000314000516378000794000716318000102000-4188412000976000107454810000264000516345100004840005163691000071400051636110000644000516387120006140003163671000081600012745311000092000-24180#N/A102000#N/A298000234000716369100006740005163311000023400051635410000514000516351100007140005163980004140007163591000082000-2418308000192000-418381000...