精品文档---下载后可任意编辑中国潜在产出的估算、要素分解和预测——基于Kalman 滤波的实证分析的开题报告【摘要】本文旨在对中国潜在产出进行估算、要素分解和预测，并探讨其对经济政策的影响。采纳基于 Kalman 滤波的实证分析方法，将潜在产出分解为劳动力、资本、技术进步和生产率四个要素，并预测未来的产出空间。讨论发现，中国潜在产出的增长速度整体呈现下降趋势，对于经济政策的实施有着重要的指导意义。同时，资本和技术进步成为影响潜在产出的重要因素，应加强对相关领域的讨论和投资。【关键词】潜在产出；要素分解；Kalman 滤波；经济政策；资本；技术进步【Abstract】This paper aims to estimate, factor decompose, and predict China's potential output and explore its impact on economic policy. Metohd of empirical analysis based on Kalman filter is used to decompose potential output into four factors: labor, capital, technological advances, and productivity, and predict future output space. The study found that the overall growth rate of China's potential output is declining, which has important guiding significance for the implementation of economic policies. At the same time, capital and technological progress have become important factors affecting potential output, and research and investment in related fields should be strengthened.【Keywords】potential output；factor decomposition；Kalman filter；economic policy；capital；technological advances
