中国与东盟国家双边贸易的影响因素研究

中国与东盟国家双边贸易的影响因素研究中国与东盟国家双边贸易的影响因素研究摘要近年来，我国与东盟国家经贸关系不断深化，双边贸易取得了长足进步。2019 年 8月，东盟超过美国成为我国第二大贸易伙伴，中国与东盟签订《协定书》全面生效也于11 月生效，意味中国与东盟自贸区合作踏入新的台阶。中国与东盟自贸区有其得天独厚的经济基础，人文环境及强有力的合作意愿支撑，近年来双边经贸发展快速，也为中国在更大区域的合作提供了范例。本文先就双边贸易发展现状进行分析，并通过计算双边贸易结合度（TI）分析中国与东盟国家双边贸易的紧密程度。进一步分析可能影响双边贸易的因素，实证分析部分构造贸易引力模型进行定量分析，并利用该模型测算双边贸易潜力值。实证研究发现，中国和东盟各国的国内生产总值和地理距离是影响双边贸易发展的重要因素，其中东盟国家国内生产总值的提高更具有促进作用。在模型的构建中添加了经济自由度指数这一变量，实证表明，贸易国的经济开放程度对与双边的贸易发展有正向促进作用。各国可以通过放宽外企设厂条件，提高产权保障，建立灵活的劳工市场等方面提升经济开放程度。进一步释放双边贸易潜力。关键词：中国东盟双边贸易；贸易现状；贸易潜力；引力模型Study on the influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and Asean countries AbstractNowadays, China and ASEAN have been further deepened in economic erea, In November of last year , The agreement signed by China and asean is in full force. The agreements marks a new stage of cooperation between China and Southeast Asia. Firstly, Will analyzed the trade status between Asean and China, and then do an analyzed about the index of dominant comparative advantage and the degree of bilateral trade, Then use the gravity model, to find the factor which may affect bilateral trade. Under the research, it can says that the GDP of trading countries is an important factor, There is know that a great influent on the increasing of bilateral trade is by the economic liberalization . Our government should promote enterprise development, i...