北京市房地产价格现状及变化趋势分析

北京市房地产价格现状及变化趋势分析摘 要房地产业是我国经济的支柱产业，它的良好发展对我国宏观经济发展至关重要。房地产市场价格的变化不仅影响着我们的生活，而且关系到城市的发展潜力和国家金融的稳定。对房地产价格的影响因素和房地产的发展趋势进行定性和定量分析，有利于政府发挥宏观调控的作用，也可以为消费者和房地产开发企业以及银行信贷提供信息参考。本文首先对中国房地产价格价值规律分析进行探讨，结合中西方房地产业的发展情况，分析北京房地产的发展趋势。并根据 2005-2016 年北京市商品住宅的相关数据资料，选取近 11 年的数据，运用 STATA 软件进行实证分析。通过多元回归模型对北京市数据分析，得到城市居民人均可支配收入对商品住宅价格的影响最为显著，呈正相关性。常住人口和商品房销售面积对商品住宅价格的影响不显著。本文最后根据前文的研究结果以及国内现状，结合当前的宏观调控政策，对北京市房地产业提出了一些建议。通过短期调控和中长期调控相互作用，对新房出售新房出租旧房买卖旧房租赁四个方面的考察，促进北京市房地产业健康发展，为房地产消费者提供未来房价走势提供参考。关键词：房地产；住房价格 ；实证研究Abstract The real estate industry is a pillar industry in China's economy, and its good development is very important for China's macro-economy. The real estate market price changes not only affect our lives, but also relate to the city's development potential and national financial stability. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of real estate prices and the development trend of real estate is beneficial to the government to play the role of macro-control and to provide information reference for consumers, real estate development enterprises and bank credit. First of all, this paper analyzes the law of real estate value in China, and analyzes the development trend of real estate in Beijing in the light of the development of Chinese and Western real estate industry. According to the relevant data of commercial housing in Beijing dur...