“中巴经济走廊”倡议对中国进出口巴基斯坦的影响分析

内 容 摘 要 “中巴经济走廊”作为“一带一路”的重要组成部分之一，是中国直通印度洋的重要通道。鉴于此，论文主要探究了“中巴经济走廊”倡议是否影响中国对巴基斯坦的进出口。本文采用的方法是合成控制法，冲击事件为 “中巴经济走廊”倡议的提出 。处理组为巴基斯坦。控制组为未与中国签订自贸区协议和 “一带一路”合作文件的国家。以此来探究中国向巴基斯坦的进出口贸易是否受到该事件的影响。实证结果和“安慰剂＂检验均显示“中巴经济走廊＂倡议带来了中国对巴基斯坦的出口额上升而进口额下降，这可能是由两国贸易地位不平衡，基础建设增加带来的内需增加和在南亚经济圈地位下降导致的。关键词：“中巴经济走廊” 合成控制法 贸易变化ABSTRACTThe "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" is one of the important components of the "Belt and Road" and an important channel for China's access to the Indian Ocean. This paper mainly explains whether the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative influences China's imports and exports to Pakistan. This article uses the synthetic control method. The impact event is the implementation of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" initiative. Pakistan is the treated group. The control group consists of countries which did not signed a FTA or a "Belt and Road" cooperation document with China. The empirical results and the "placebo" test show that the implementation of the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" initiative has promoted China's exports to Pakistan and may have reduced China's imports from Pakistan, which may be caused by the imbalance in the trade status between the two countries, increased domestic demand due to increased infrastructure and decline in status in the South Asian economic circle.KEY WORDS: “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” Synthetic control method Trade volume1 目 录一、选题背景及其意义......................................1（一）、经济走廊的介绍..................................1（二...