摘要自1998年开始，我国住房制度改革逐步深入，特别是随着福利化分房的结束，住房商品化的开始，房地产业进入了持续快速发展的新时期。与此同时，房地产价格也连续快速攀升。近年来关于我国房地产泡沫问题的争论不绝于耳，但是一直未有定论。本论文在收集整理大量有关房地产泡沫资料的基础上，通过对房地产泡沫的研究认定了我国局部地区出现房地产泡沫的事实，揭示了全国性房地产泡沫的风险性及其危害，针对我国房地产泡沫风险因素提出了相应的预警及防范对策。关键词：房地产泡沫；预警机制；防范ABSTRACTSince1998,thehousingsystemreformhasbeengraduallydeepeninginChina,especiallywiththeendofwelfarehousingdistributionandthebeginningofthecommercializationoflodgings,therealestateindustryhasenteredanewperiodofsustainedandrapiddevelopment.Atthesametime,therealestatepriceiscontinuouslyrisingfast.Intherecentyears,theendlessdebateontheChina'srealestatebubblehasnotbeendecided.Thispaperholdsthefactthattheexistoftherealestatebubbleinsomeareas,revealstheriskofthenationalestatebubbleandit’sdangerandputsforwardthecorrespondingearlywarningandpreventivemeasuresbasedontheresearchanddatacollectingrelatingtotherealestatebubble.Keywords：Realestatebubble;earlywarningmechanism;prevention目录第一章前言...........................................6第二章房地产泡沫概述................................72.1房地产泡沫的定义和理解................................72.2房地产泡沫的特征与表现形式............................72.3房地产泡沫的判定......................................82.3.1检验房地产投资收益率................................82.3.2检验房地产的转手率或成交额..........................82.3.3估算房地产的理论价格................................82.3.4分析房地产投资......................................82.3.5监测开发商的施工进度................................9第三章中国房地产泡沫的形成原因分析..................93.1土地投机..............................................93.2政府失败.............................................103.2.1土地供应“双轨制”.................................103.2.2政府干预失败.......................................103.3权利寻租.............................................11第四章房地产泡沫对我国的危害.......................124.1导致房地产市场产品结构失衡...........................124.2抑制其他产业的发展...................................124.3损害广大消费者的利益.................................124.4给金融系统带来巨大金融风险...........................134.5影响市场经济的正常秩序...............................13第五章我国房地产泡沫的预警.........................135.1房地产泡沫预警的涵义.................................145.2房地产泡沫预警指标的选取.............................145.2.1房地产价格增长率/实际GDP增长率....................145.2.2收入房价比.........................................145.2.3商品房空置率.......................................155.2.4房地产贷款额占金融机构贷款总额的比重...............155.3房地产泡沫预警指标权重确定...........................165.4房地产泡沫预警方法...................................165.5房地产预警的意义.....................................175.5.1保证房地产业持续、快速、健康发展...................175.5.2使房地产业经济运行管理走上科学轨道.................175.5.3成为房地产经济学理论研究重要内容...................17第六章我国房地产泡沫的防范.........................186.1加强税收制度的建设...................................186.1.1征收房地产税.......................................186.1.2改...
