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第1页共14页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共14页Unit1EMUHasExchangeRatePolicyImplicationsforTransitionCountriesSeekingEUMembership[KeyWords]EuropeanEconomicandMonetaryUnion(EMU)欧洲经济货币联盟EMUreferencevalues欧洲经济货币联盟参考标准Thenewexchangeratemechanism(ERM2)新汇率机制IMF’sFiscalAffairsDepartment国际货币基金组织财政部Thecurrencyriskpremium货币风险溢酬Asymmetricrealshocks非对称性实际冲击Anindependentmonetaryandexchangeratepolicy独立的货币汇率政策Macroeconomicstability宏观经济稳定性Budgetbalance预算平衡Synchronizedcycles同步的循环Biasedtowardagricultureandindustry偏重于工农业Non-coreEUmembers欧盟非核心成员国Amanagedfloat(exchangeratearrangement)有管理的浮动汇率制Anundeclaredmarginagainstthedeutschemark钉紧德国马克，保持一个不公开的差额Apre-announcedcrawlingpeg预先公布的缓慢钉紧汇率制度Acurrencyboardarrangement货币局制度、联系汇率制度Externalcurrentaccount对外经常性项目账户Thecapitalaccount资本账户Legalreserverequirementsystems法定存款准备金制度Sterilizedintervention对冲操作Thenominalexchangerate名义利率Exchangerateregimes汇率制度Appropriateflankingpolicies适当的配套政策Containmentoffiscalimbalances遏制财政失衡Aprudentmonetarystance审慎的货币政策Fixedparity固定平价Purchasingpowerparity(PPP)购买力平价Interestrateparity(IRP)利率平价Goldparity金平价Widentheofficialmargins放宽官方波动幅度ShadowtheEurounilaterally单方面暗中钉紧欧元Fullcapitalaccountliberalization资本项目的完全放开第2页共14页第1页共14页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第2页共14页[Notes]1.IncludingconvergencetowardEMUreferencevaluesandadherencetothenewexchangeratemechanism(ERM2)createdfornonparticipatingEUmembers.2.Thatis,thosethathaveoptedout,orbeenleftout,ofEMU.3.Albeit4.EnteringtheEMUcurrencyareaentailsbothcostandbenefitsforcandidatecountries.5.Also,thecurrencyriskpremium,reflectedintheinterestrate,wouldfallandeventuallyvanish.6.Animportantpotentialcostofjoiningacurrencyareaisthatitimpairsacountry’sabilitytoabsorbasymmetricrealshocksintheabsenceofanindependentmonetaryandexchangeratepolicy.7.And,conversely,participationinacurrencyarealeadstotradeexpansionandthustomoresynchronizedcycles.8.Theireconomicstructureisonlymoderatelymorebiasedtowardagricultureandindustryrelativetoservicesthanthatofnon-coreEUmembers,exceptGreece.9.Atoneendofthespectrum,theCzechRepublicfollowsamanagedfloatsubordinatetotheinflationtargetsetbythecentralbank.10.Thecurrentmacroeconomicsituationinthesecountriesisbroadlycharacterizedbysustainablegrowth,underpinnedbyrapidlyincreasinglaborproductivity,andbyadecelerationininflationtolowdouble-digitorhighsingle-digitrates.11.Theeffectiscompoundedbyasurgeinforeigndirectinvestment.12.InsufficientfinancialandenterpriserestructuringhasrenderedtheCzecheconomyvulnerable.13.Allfivecountries-tovaryingdegrees-willneedtomakesteadyprogresstowardincreasedwageflexibility,containmentoffiscalimbalancessupportedbyaprudentmonetarystance,andfinancialsectorrestructuring.14.However,accessioncountriesshouldexercisecautioninwideningthebandduringaperiodofturbulenceintheforeignexchangemarket.15.Topreservecredibility,theauthoritiesshoulddeclarethecountry’scommitmenttoreinstatetheformerparityfollowingatemporarydeviationduetoaspeculativeattack.16.*Theotherdilemmaentersontherequirementoffullcapitalaccountliberalizationwhilethecandidatecountriesremainvul...