移动通信业务预测方法研究移动通信业务预测方法研究一、预测概述············································································11.1预测和经济预测.................................................................................................................11.2预测的基本原则.................................................................................................................21.3预测的基本原理、途径和过程.........................................................................................31.3.1预测的基本原理..........................................................................................................31.3.2预测的基本途径..........................................................................................................51.3.3预测的基本过程..........................................................................................................61.4预测的分类.........................................................................................................................71.4.1按对象不同分类..........................................................................................................71.4.2按范围或层次分类......................................................................................................71.4.3按时间长短分类..........................................................................................................71.4.4按预测性质分类..........................................................................................................71.4.5按预测方法的运用分类..............................................................................................81.5预测的检验.........................................................................................................................81.5.1标准统计量指标..........................................................................................................81.5.2相对度量指标..............................................................................................................9二.时间序列平滑预测法······························································102.1移动平均法.......................................................................................................................102.1.1简单移动平均法........................................................................................................112.1.2加权移动平均法........................................................................................................112.1.3趋势移动平均法........................................................................................................112.2指数平滑法.......................................................................................................................122.2.1一次指数平滑法：....................................................................................................122.2.2二次指数平滑法：....................................................................................................132.2.3三次指数平滑法：....................................................................................................132.2.4差分指数平滑法：...................................
