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第1页共19页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共19页ThewordeconomyMakingtradepolicyinanewdemocracyafteradeepcrisis:Indonesia1.IntroductionHowdodeepcrisesaffecttradepolicyindevelopingcountries?Theconventionalhistoricalviewisthateconomiesturninward,inanattempttoprotectfirmsandemployment,torestoretradebalances,andinresponsetotheperceivednegativeconsequencesofglobalisation.Asacorollary,itisarguedthatgovernmentsfinditeasiertoreformduringgoodtimes,ofstrongeconomicgrowthandlowunemployment.However,overthepasttwodecades,analternativeview第2页共19页第1页共19页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第2页共19页hasarisen,basedontheobservedbehaviourofcountriesincrisis.ThisiswhatLittleetal.Termedthenewliberalisation.Thatis:thebalanceofpaymentscrisiscreatestheshockenvironmentinwhichtradeliberalizationandotherradicalpolicychangesbecomepossible.LalandMyintdevelopedthisargumentmoregenerallywiththeircrisishypothesis,thatmajorreformsareoftentriggeredbyasignificantevent:amajoreconomiccrisis,amilitarydefeat,thecessationofexternalsupportoranaturaldisaster.Thepoliticaleconomyexplanationsforthischangedbehaviourarecomplex,andincludebothgenericandcountry-specificfactors.ThepurposeofthispaperistoaddtoourunderstandingofthenexusbetweentradepolicyandcriseswithreferencetoastudyoftheIndonesianexperiencesincethelate1990s.Afterthreedecadesofmostlyrapideconomicgrowth,accompaniedbyliberalisationinthelate1960sandmid-1980s,thecountryexperiencedadeepeconomicandpoliticalcrisisin1997-98.in1998,theeconomycontractedbyover13percent,thegovernmentsignedontoahighlycontroversialInternationalMonetaryFundprogramme,andthe32-yearruleofPresidentSoehartocametoanabruptend.Authoritarian第3页共19页第2页共19页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第3页共19页politicalstructuresgavewaytoaweakenedstate,anewandfragiledemocracyandmajorchangesinpoliticalandinstitutionalstructures.Ourmainconclusionisthat,perhapsunexpectedly,theIndonesianeconomyremainedlargelyopenoverthisperiod.However,insomeinstances,holdingthelineontradereformhashadmoretodowiththepersonalitiesinvolvedintradepolicyratherthantheinstitutionalprocessesforformulatingthatpolicy.Thus,opennessisprecarious,andnotdeeplyembeddedineithersupportiveinstitutionalisedpolicy-makingstructuresorwidespreadpopularopinion.Moreover,barrierstodomestictradehaverisensignificantlyandnowposeasubstantialthreattothecountryeconomicintegration.Thislatterissuehasreceivedrelativelylittleattentionintheliteratureontradepolicyandcriseswherecentralgovernmentauthorityisgreatlyweakened.Weareunawareofasubstantialliteratureonthissubjectforotherdevelopingcountries,addressingbothinternationalanddomestictradepolicy.ButweconjecturethattheIndonerienexperiencehaswidegeneralapplicability.Thisisthereforeanissuethatotherdevelopingcountriesandinternational第4页共19页第3页共19页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第4页共19页developmentagencieswillneedtoaddressinpost-crisisenvironments.Therestofthepaperisorganisedasfollows.Section2providessomecontextonIndonesia,includingbriefreviewsoftheevolutionoftradepolicy,thesevereeconomiccrisisof1997-98,andthenewpost-crisispolicy-makingframework.Section3examinesinternationaltradepolicysincethecrisis,whileSection4investigatesthechangingdomestictradepolicyregime.Section5providesananalysiso...