消费者行为的全球趋同研究globalconvergence和globaldivergencePart1TheoreticalFoundationsDavidMayer-Foulkes.GlobalDivergence.CentrodeInvestigaciónyDocenciaEconómicas(CIDE)-DivisionofEconomics,Vol.9,2002.Theyusedthesampleofnon-mainly-petroleum-exportingcountrieshavingmarketeconomiesduringtheperiod1960-1997anddividedthemintofiveclustersofcountriesbyaregressionclusteringalgorithmaccordingtothelevelsandratesofchangeofincomeandlifeexpectancy.Thefiveclusterscorrespondtoadvancedcountries,especiallyfastgrowingcountries,andthreetiersoflessdevelopedcountrieswithqualitativelydifferentdevelopmentpaths.Theyshowedthatthefollowingpropertiesholdfortheseclusters.1)Growthratesacrossgroupsofcountriesaregloballydivergent;somesuccessivegroupsconvergewhilemostdiverge.2)Incomeinequalitybetweenthesegroupsofcountrieshasincreasedwhileincomeinequalitywithinthegroupshasremainedalmostunchanged.3)Thefivegroupsofcountriesexhibitbetaandsigmaincomedivergencebetweengroupsandconvergencewithingroups.Besides,theimpliedsteadystategrowthratesacrossgroupsofcountriesaregloballydivergent,thefive-clubconvergencemodelismuchmoresignificantthantheone-clubmodel,andthedistributionsofcountry-specificconvergenceregressioncoefficientsaresignificantlydifferentacrossgroupsofcountries.Theconvergencefoundwithingroupsisconsistentwiththerelativeconvergence(tosteadystatetrajectories)foundintheliterature.However,relativeconvergenceonlymeansthatthereareaseriesofperhapsdistinct,localequilibriumprocessesgoingon.Indeed,thesemaythemselvesbeduetoeconomicforcesthatpreventglobalconvergence.TheempiricalfactsareconsistentonlywiththeoriesofeconomicgrowthexplainingdivergenceandproposingmultiplesteadystatesorotherexplanationsforprolongedtransitionsSuchmodelsusuallyreflectadvantagesoftherichanddisadvantagesofthepoor.UlbeBosmaandRogerKnight.GlobalFactoryandLocalField:ConvergenceandDivergenceintheInternationalCane-SugarIndustry,1850-1940.InternationalInstitutevoarSocialGeschiedenis,2004Theyarguedthatthesinglemostimportantfactaboutnineteenth-centurysugarindustrieswasthedegreeoftechnologicalconvergencethatcametocharacterizetheirmanufacturingsectors,regardlessofthetypeoflabourinvolved.Arevisitingoftheliteratureofthepasttwenty-fiveyears,bothintheNewandOldWorlds,suggeststhathistorianshaveyetfullytocometotermswiththeglobalcharacterofthisconvergenceandwiththequestionofwhyconvergenceinthefactoryhadnoparallelinthefield,wheretherecontinuedtobeastrikingglobaldivergencebetweenthemeansandmodesbywhichtheindustrywassuppliedwithrawmaterial.Thisproblemintherecenthistoriographyofthesubjectalsohighlightsissuesrelatingtothe‘‘proletarianization’’oflabourandtheassumptionthatindustrialcapitalistmodernitywasinextricablyassociatedwiththedevelopmentof‘‘freelabour’’.Morespecifically,itdrawsattentiontomajorflawsinthetermsofreferenceofthenowclassicdebateaboutthenexusbetweentechnologicalchangeandthepredominantformsoflabourintheCaribbeanproductionarea.Insodoing,itunderlinestheneedforaglobalratherthansimplyregionalapproachtothedynamicsofchangeintheinternationalsugarindustryofthelatecolonialera.KathMoserI;VladimirShkolnikov;DavidA.Leon.Worldmortality1950—2000:divergencereplacesconvergencefromthelate1980sInternationalBulletinoftheWorldHealthOrganization,Vol.83,no.3,2005.Theydrawaconclusionthatalthoughinonesensetheworldhasbecomeabetterplaceasmortalitydeclines,inanotherw...
