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Lookinsidetoknowwhentosell深入洞察，择机出货ByJerryKnight(FromTechnews.com)About4pages(1,324words)TheWashingtonPost,September22nd,2003Howcanyoutellwhenthestockmarketmaybegettingtoohot?如何才能判断出股市是否变得过热？Twoofthebestcluesarewheninsidersdecideit'stimetocashinmillionsofsharesandspeculativepennystocksgothroughtheroof.有两个明显的迹象，一个是内幕交易者决定抛售数百万股票的时候，一个是低价股票大涨特涨(股价暴棚)的时候。Washingtoninvestorslastweeksawbothsignsofaragingbullmarket.Whichasanyonewhocanrememberasfarbackasthelastmillenniumknowsisnotnecessarilygood.上周，华盛顿的投资者们在一路飙升的牛市中目睹了这两种迹象。那些对上一个牛市有记忆的人都会认识到，这种涨势未必是好事。ThemostcompellingevidencethatsomestockbuyershavealreadyforgottenaboutthebadolddaysistheastonishingspikeinthesharesofXybernautCorp.,aFairfaxcompanywhose"wearablecomputers"havelongenthralledamateurinvestors.可是，有些股民已经忘记了那段惨痛的过去，Xybernaut公司的股价正直线上升到了让人咋舌的程度，就是最好的证明。位于菲尔法克斯的Xybernaut公司推出了“可穿戴式电脑”，一直诱惑着那些业余投资者们。SincethebeginningofSeptember,Xybernauthasannouncedtwoneworders,totaling$2.1million,andthemarketvalueofitsstockhasincreasedby$200million,nearlytriplingfrom74centsashareto$2.17.九月初以来，Xybernaut公司宣称已经签下两份总价值210万美元的新定单。同时，其股票市值增加了2亿美元，从每股74美分到2.17美元，几乎上涨了两倍。Now$2millionisalotofnewbusinessforacompanythatgenerates$10millionayearinrevenue,buthowthatmakesXybernautworththreetimeswhatitwasinAugustisacalculationonlythepeoplebuyingthesharescanmake.诚然，200万美元能给一个年收入1000万的公司带来许多新的商机。但是，怎么会使Xybernaut的股价比八月份上涨了两倍，只有买进这支股票的人才能算清这笔帐。LogicalvaluationhasneverbeenanissueforfolkswhogambleonXybernaut,astockfartoovolatiletobeaninvestment.Sincethecompanywentpublicin1996,thestockhastradedashighas$23.75ashareandaslowas21cents.OnThursdayitwasthemostactiveissueontheNasdaqStockMarket,trading83millionshares--16millionmorethanMicrosoft.Xybernaut的股价极不稳定，所以不能视作投资品，但是适合那些投机人士。对他们来说，理论上的计算已经不是关键问题了。自从1996年公司股票上市以来其股价曾达到过每股23.75美元的高峰，也一度跌到21美分的低谷。本周四，它成为纳斯达克股票市场最为活跃的一支股票，成交量8300万股，比微软多了1600万股。Spikesliketherecentonehaveoccurredseveraltimesbefore,eachfollowedbyacrashwhenthesmartspeculatorsbailedoutandleftsomebodyelseholdingthebag.以前，曾经多次出现过与近来情况类似的股价暴涨，而每次暴涨之后紧跟着一次大跌，随之而来的是，精明的投机者获利出逃，其余的人被套牢。WhatdrivesXybernautstockisasteadystreamofpressreleasesandahyperactive,hyperbolicfollowingonInternetmessageboards.Readingthecommentspostedinthecourseofjust15minutesofXybernautchatonYahooprovidesanupdateinstate-of-the-artprofanityandabsoluteproofthatsomepeopleneverlearnedthelessonoftheIncredibleExplodingTechBubbleorthePerilsofPennyStocks.推动Xybernaut股票上扬的动力来自于一连串的新闻报道以及互联网留言板上疯狂、热烈的讨论。Xybernaut接受了雅虎专访，看一看在仅仅15分钟访谈期间大家发表的评论吧，它会向你展示什么叫忘乎所以到了极点，也充分证明了有些人还没有领教过高科技泡沫的教训，以及低价股票的风险。RemindersoftheRoaring1990salsoaboundinthewillingnessofinvestorstobuystocksfrominsiderswhowanttobailout.20世纪90年代股市一路高歌猛进也助长了投资者的乐观情绪，他们从内部人士那...