我国各项税收的回归分析与预测模型摘要：对于一个国家而言，在衡量经济活动的过程当中，税收总值能够作为一项重要指标，国家如果要追求税收总值的增长，同时必须要注重对税收结构的完善。所以总体而言，把握总税收的发展趋势以及找到它的相应影响因素具有非常现实的研究意义。文章选择税收总值等多项指标，利用回归等方式进行分析和研究。通过研究我国在2001年到2016年之间税收总值的变化趋势，对未来三年内的税收总值进行合理预测，并且最终还结合我国实际情况提出相应的建议。关键词：税收总值；回归分析；趋势预测；灰色预测RegressionanalysisandpredictionmodelbofthetaxinChinaAbstract：Foracountry,intheprocessofmeasuringeconomicactivity,thetaxvaluecanbeanimportantindicator.Ifthecountrywantstopursuethegrowthoftaxrevenue,wemustpaymoreattentiontotheimprovementofthetaxstructure.Therefore,ingeneral,itisofgreatsignificancetograspthedevelopmenttrendoftotaltaxandfinditscorrespondinginfluencingfactors.Thispapersyntheticallyselectssevencorrespondingindicatorsoftaxgrossdomesticandconsumptiontax.Bymeansofregressionanalysisandrelatedanalysismethods,westudythechangetrendoftaxrevenuebetween2001and2016inChina,makeareasonableforecastforthetotaltaxrevenueinthenextthreeyears,andfinallyputforwardtheactualsituationinChina.Suggestionsshouldbemade.KeyWords:TTotaltaxrevenue;Regressionanalysis;Trendprediction;Greyprediction目录1引言........................................................................................................................................................42相关分析................................................................................................................................................52.1理论知识...................................................................................................................................52.2总税收及其影响变量的相关分析...........................................................................................6表2-1税收总值及影响因素原始数据..........................................................................................6表2-2总税收影响因素相关分析表..............................................................................................63回归分析................................................................................................................................................73.1理论知识...................................................................................................................................7（3）拟合优度检验.................................................................................................................83.2总税收及其影响因素建立回归模型.......................................................................................83.2.1建立回归方程...............................................................................................................8表3-1模型汇总表..........................................................................................................................9表3-2方差分析表..................................................................................................................9表3-3系数表..........................................................................................................................93.2.2回归系数的显著性检验.......................................................................................................9表3-4系数表......
