市农产品物流中心选址研究摘要随着人们对物流重要性认可程度的不断增加，“第三利润源泉”的理念已经越来越多的被人们所接受。农产品物流是解决农产品供需矛盾的关键，发展专业化、社会化的农产品物流中心是降低农产品物流成本、提高物流效率、增加农产品附加价值的有效途径之一。本文首先分析南通市农产品的供需现状，接着对南通市农产品的物流现状及问题进行阐述。然后分析了南通市新建农产品物流中心的必要性。之后构建基于重心法的农产品物流中心选址模型，并对模型进行求解。运用灰色预测法、二次移动平均法预测2017年南通市城乡居民人均主要农产品需求量；运用简单算数平均法预测南通市各区县的常住人口增速和城镇化率；计算2017年南通市各区县城乡常住人口、各区县农产品的总需求量；估算各区县的运输费率，将各区县的经纬度转化为平面坐标等，得到求解重心法模型的相关数据；最后，运用EXCEL进行迭代求解并确定建设南通市农产品物流中心的最佳位置。【关键词】：南通市；农产品物流；物流中心选址；重心法StudyonLocationofAgriculturalProductsLogisticsCenterinNantongAbstractWiththeincreasingdegreeofrecognitionoftheimportanceoflogistics,"thethirdprofitsource"concepthasbeenacceptedbymoreandmorepeople.Thelogisticsofagriculturalproductsisthekeytosolvethecontradictionbetweensupplyanddemandofagriculturalproducts,thedevelopmentofspecializedagriculturalproductslogisticscenter,thesocializationofagriculturalproductsistoreducelogisticscosts,improvelogisticsefficiency,effectivewaytheaddedvalueofagriculturalproductsincreased.ThispaperfirstanalyzesthecurrentsituationofsupplyanddemandofagriculturalproductsinNantongCity,andthenelaboratesonthestatusquoandproblemsoflogisticsofagriculturalproductsinNantongcity.AndthenanalyzesthenecessityofthenewNantongagriculturalproductslogisticscenter.Aftertheconstructionofthelocationmodelofagriculturalproductslogisticscenterbasedongravitymethod,andsolvingthemodel.Byusingthegreyforecastingmethod,twoamovingaverageforecastingofurbanandruralresidentsinNantongcityin2017percapitamajoragriculturalproductsdemand;residentpopulationgrowthandurbanizationrateforecastofeachdistrictinNantongbyusingthesimplearithmeticaveragemethod;calculationof2017NantongCityDistrictCountyTownshipresidentpopulation,thetotaldemandofagriculturalproductsinalldistrictsandcounties;estimatethecountyTransportrates,thecountyoflatitudeandlongitudeintoplanecoordinates,gettherelevantdataforgravitymodel;finally,usingEXCELiterationanddeterminingthebestlocationforconstructionofNantongagriculturalproductslogisticscenter.[Keywords]:Nantongcity;agriculturalproductslogistics;locationoflogisticscenter;centerofgravitymethod目录一、绪论.........................................................................................................................................................1（一）研究背景、目的与意义................................................................................................................1（二）国内外研究现状..........................................................................................................................1（三）研究主要内容及创新点..............................................................................................................3（四）技术路线.......................................................................................................................................3二、南通市农产品供需现状..............................................................................................................
