2014-7-15 作者:钟超 Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Methods for Hackers 概率编程和贝叶斯方法实践 1 Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Methods for Hackers | 2014/7/15 Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Methods for Hackers 目录 第1 章 贝叶斯方法原则及概率编程初步 ................................................................. 3 1.1 贝叶斯推断的哲学意义 .................................................................................. 3 1.2 贝叶斯思维方式 ............................................................................................ 3 1.3 贝叶斯推断在实际中的应用 ........................................................................... 3 1.4 频率论者的方法错了吗 ................................................................................. 4 1.5 我们的贝叶斯框架 ......................................................................................... 4 1.6 示例 ............................................................................................................. 4 1.6.1 抛硬币实验 ............................................................................................. 4 1.6.2 BUG, OR JUST SWEET, UNINTENDED FEATURE? ...................................................... 6 1.6.3 概率分布 ................................................................................................ 8 1.6.4 从短信中推断行为 ................................................................................. 11 1.6.5 第一个分析工具：PYMC ......................................................................... 13 1.6.6 相关解释 .............................................................................................. 16 1.6.7 为什么要对后验概率进行采样 ................................................................ 16 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 18 第2 章 PY...
