金融危机的五大教训

金融危机的五大教训 1、金融危机的五大教训金融危机的五大教训 Withtheone-yearanniversaryofthecollapseofLehmanBrothersapproaching,economistsarelistinglessonslearned.AmongthemisRichardBernerofMorganStanley.Herearehisfivelessons,drawnfromapresentationatrecentconferencesponsoredlastmonthbytheCentralBankofArgentinaandelaboratedoninanotetoclientslastweek:1.A 2、strongandwell-regulatedfinancialsystemshouldbethefirstlineofdefenseagainstfinancialshocks….[T]hemorefree-marketorientedwewantoureconomiestobe,themoreweneedofficialsupervisionandoversightofourfinancialinstitutionsandmarkets.Thatsbecausetrulyfree-marketeconomiesinvolveahighriskofbusinessfailure,andcorresponding 3、highriskstothefinancialinstitutionsandinvestorsthatlendtoandinvestinthosebusinesses.Akeylessonfromthiscrisisisthatcompetitionamonglendersbreedsinnovation,butalsoinstability.2.Aggressiveandpersistentpolicyresponsesarethesecondlineofdefense…[F]rompastcriseslikeJapanslostdecade,welearnedthatthepersistenceofpolic 4、ysupportisalsocriticaltofacilitatebalance-sheetcleanup,offsetthedragontheeconomy,andpreventdeflation…Formarketparticipants,understandingjusthowpersistentpolicysupportwillbeisimportant;theywantcentralbankerstomakeacleardistinctionbetweentheendofeasing,whichisnowunderway,andexitstrategiesorthebeginningoftighten 5、ing,whichlieahead.3.Macroprudentialsupervisionandassetpricesshouldbothplaybiggerrolesinmonetarypolicy….Thereisbroadagreementthataglobalfocusonsystemicriskisneeded.Thereislessagreementonexactlyhowtodefineandimplementit.4.Flexibleexchangeratesenhancetheabilityofmonetarypolicytorespondtoshocks.5.Globalimbalances 6、contributedtothecrisisbyallowinginternalimbalancestogrow.…[R]ecessionishelpingtorebalancetheUSandglobaleconomiesandmarkets.Thequestionnow:Willthisrebalancingprocessbebenignandsustainableforeconomiesandmarkets,orwillitbedisruptive?IworryaboutthelatterbecausecurrentUSpoliciesareexpandingratherthanreducingimbala 7 、 nces,andofficialselsewherearelimitingexchange-rateadjus...