全概率公式的应用探讨摘要 本文首先对全概率公式的推导过程以及中心思想进行了概述。然后分别列举了全概率公式在零件次品率问题、摸彩公平性问题、疾病判断问题、以及在炮弹击毁坦克的概率问题上的应用实例 ；接着构建了摸球模型，它的创新之处在于，它实现了两个盒子摸球和交换同步进行的思路，重复多次后求出概率，再利用数学归纳法加以证明，延伸推导后得出结论。最后是对概率模型的评价与探讨，给出了它在相应领域的应用及作用；生产中便捷了质检工作，生活中证明了先后摸奖机会均等 ，医疗上提供了可行性的依据，军事上所带来的作用也是不可估量的，构建的摸球模型，它的特点在于打破常规，具有一定深度的研究的意义。关键词 全概率公式 完备事件组 两两互斥 条件概率 Discussion on Application of Total Probability FormulaAbstract In this paper, the derivation process of the total probability formula and the central idea are summarized. Then, the application examples of the total probability formula on the problem of defective parts rate, fair color, disease judgment, and probability of shell destroying tank are listed respectively. Then, the model is constructed. Finally, the evaluation and discussion of the probability model is given, and its application and function in the corresponding field are given. The quality inspection work is convenient in production, and the opportunity of first prize is proved in life.KEY WORDS Total probability formula Complete Event Group Two and two mutually repel Conditional probability目录引言.........................................................................................................................................................11 全概率公式概述..................................................................................................................................11.1 中心思想及推导过程[1]p45.........................................................................................................12 全概率公式在若干问题中的应用..............
