广东省际人口流动对经济增长的影响研究【摘要】目的：研究 2000-2018 年广东在全国省际人口流动规模变小，增速减缓大背景下省际人口流动状况以及对广东省经济增长的影响。方法：采用“五普”、“六普”、2010-2017 年全国流动人口动态监测广东数据，从广东省际人口流动现状与广东省经济现状两大方面分析，利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数进行实证分析省际人口流动变动对经济增长的影响。结果：广东省际人口流动规模呈现波动持续增长趋势，具有区域集聚性、年龄结构呈“倒√”型、人口素质较低特征。广东省经济增长“减速增质”，固定资产结构、三大产业结构与就业结构逐步优化，第三产业潜力大。广东省际人口流动对经济增长具有显著性的积极影响。结论：广东省应大力推进高质量人才建设，提高人力资本投入；深入推进户籍制度改革，保障省际流动人口权益；加强省际人口流动管理，促进广东经济均衡增长。【关键词】省际人口流动；经济增长；经济贡献率；建议Study on the influence of inter provincial population flow on economic growth in Guangdong Province[Abstract] Objective: To study the inter provincial population flow and its impact on the economic growth of Guangdong Province under the background that the scale of inter provincial population flow has become smaller and the growth rate has slowed down in 2000-2018. Methods: Based on the data of "The fifth national census", "The sixth national census" and national floating population dynamic monitoring in Guangdong from 2010 to 2017, this paper analyzes the current situation of inter provincial population flow and the economic situation of Guangdong Province, and uses Cobb Douglas production function to analyze the impact of inter provincial population flow on economic growth. Results: the scale of interprovincial population flow in Guangdong province fluctuates and continues to increase, which is characterized by regional agglomeration, "inverted √" type in age structure and low population quality. Guangdong's economic growth "slows d...
