广东省人口老龄化对产业结构的影响研究【摘要】目的：在创新发展老龄产业的经济背景下，结合 2019 年政府工作报告以及广东省关于促进产业结构优化升级的新政策，探索和讨论广东省人口老龄化对产业结构的影响。方法：基于 2005 年至 2018 年广东省人口结构和产业结构的相关数据，从供需双维度上分析人口老龄化对产业结构的影响路径，建立 VAR 模型和 OLS 回归模型研究人口老龄化对产业结构的影响机制。结果：在影响路径上，广东省人口老龄化与产业结构存在显著的相关性，老年人口的增多影响劳动力的供给数量和供给质量，也带动消费结构的改变以及新的消费需求的产生，促进现代服务业的发展，进而增加第三产业产值，从而作用于产业结构。在影响机制上，人口老龄化有助于产业结构合理化，并在初期达到效用最大值，同时也对产业结构高级化产生正向影响，但总体影响程度相对偏小。结论：广东省应积极调整人口政策，延缓人口老龄化进程；重视老龄产业的发展，培育经济新增长点；转变产业发展方式，技术创新驱动产业升级，逐步优化产业结构。【关键词】人口老龄化；产业结构；老龄产业；VAR 模型；OLS 回归分析Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Industrial Structure in Guangdong Province[Abstract]Objective: Under the economic background of innovative development of the aging industry, combined with the 2019 government work report and the new policy of Guangdong Province on promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, explore and discuss the impact of Guangdong's population aging on the industrial structure. Method: Based on the relevant data of Guangdong's population structure and industrial structure from 2005 to 2018, the impact path of population aging on industrial structure was analyzed from the two dimensions of supply and demand, and the VAR model and OLS regression model were established to study the impact of population aging on industrial structure. Influence Mechanism. Results: In the path of influence, there is a significant correlation between the aging population ...
