本科毕业答辩论文基于 SAS 及时间序列的上海 GDP 预测摘要近日，随着2025年世界各国GDP实力排名的发出，关于中国成为世界第二大经济强国的说法越来越多。我国省区经济是国民经济的重要组成部分，而各个省区经济优势具有相对独立性的。上海作为中国最大的经济中心城市，带动着我国经济进展，在中国经济进展中一直具有重要地位与举足轻重的影响。因此，上海人均GDP不仅反映出上海居民收入和生活水平，还可以在一定程度上显示出中国经济的进展势头。本文基于时间序列理论，以上海1978年至2025年三十六年的生产总值为基础，运用SAS软件对数据进行时间序列分析，对数据进行绘图分析、模型识别、模型估量，模型拟合。最后利用所建模型对上海市未来4至5年的年人均生产总值做出预测。关键词：人均 GDP；时间序列；ARIMA 模型AbstractRecently, with the 2025 issue of world GDP rankings for all countries, more and more people think China has become the second largest economy country . As an important part of our national economy, the provincial economy possesses the relatively independent economic advantages. Shanghai, China’s largest urban economic center, has been exerting significant influence on the domestic economic development; therefore, the real per capita GDP of Shanghai can not only reflect Shanghai residential income level and living standard, but also reveal the development trend of China’s economy.In this paper, based on the gross product data during the thirty six years from 1978 to 2025, we carry out the time series analysis of the data by the theory of time series and SAS software, and we then do the mapping analysis, model identification, model estimation and model fitting. Finally, we apply the proposed model to the real per capita GDP prediction of Shanghai in the next four to five years.Keywords: Real per capita GDP；time series；ARIMA model1 引言国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product，简称 GDP）是指在一定时期内（一个季度或一年），一个国家或地...
