飞轮电池生产计划制定张明VIP免费

飞轮电池生产计划的制定•市场需求预测-----------------------4•实际产品的生产工艺路线分析--------10•生产方式的经济分析和比较----------11•制定综合生产计划------------------13•生产能力的粗平衡------------------14•制定主生产计划--------------------14•制定MRP,CRP----------------------14•生产能力的精平衡------------------39•零件工序卡编制--------------------39•产品装配工序卡编制----------------411.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据month1month2month3month4month5month6month7month8month9month10month11month12year91824211020272311222926quarter？？？？根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近，而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARMONTHACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0251510.00019.3279.6640.3361620.00019.77619.7760.2241727.00020.22426.9660.0341823.00020.67324.1181.1181911.00021.12110.5610.43911022.00021.57021.5700.43011129.00022.01829.3580.35811226.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARMONTHFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND2111.45810.91012.0062223.36422.26824.4602331.75030.28933.2122428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数R2=0.8872，预测结果准确性很高。预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-----------------------------------------------------SalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR19.00014.8465.846218.00015.7832.217324.00016.7207.280421.00017.6573.343510.00018.5948.594620.00019.5310.469727.00020.4696.531823.00021.4061.594911.00022.34311.3431022.00023.2801.2801129.00024.2174.7831226.00025.1540.846-----------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=13.9091b=0.9371R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354误差分析：R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354从预测结...