摘要天然橡胶与石油、钢铁、煤炭并称为四大工业原料，是稀缺性资源，是关系着国民经济发展和国家经济安全的战略物资。天然橡胶工业属于上游产业，其国际价格对国民经济各行各业具有明显的波及效应。本文分为五个部分，第一部分为绪论，主要叙述本文选题的背景意义及研究目的、内容和方法及国内外的研究现状；第二部分是论述国际贸易定价理论和价格风险的相关理论；第三部分是研究影响天然橡胶价格的最根本因素供求，通过研究天然橡胶的供求曲线得出供求如何定价，并且详细分析国际国内供求对天然橡胶价格波动的影响；第四部分则是分析研究天然橡胶进口过程中价格波动的其他影响因素；第五部分即是提出对应于影响风险应该采取的规避措施。后三部分是本文的重点，通过从理论到国际国内现实情况的分析研究提出切实可行的风险规避措施，深入研究认识天然橡胶市场。关键词：天然橡胶；价格；供求；影响因素China'sNaturalRubberImportTradePriceRiskandCountermeasuresAbstract:Naturalrubberandoil,steel,coalarecalledthefourindustrialrawmaterial,andwiththesametimeiscalledthescarcityresources,andisstrategicmaterialswhichisrelatedtothedevelopmentofnationaleconomyandnationaleconomicsafety.Naturalrubberindustrybelongstotheupstreamindustry,anditsinternationalpricehasapparentlyspreadeffectontheprofessionsofnationaleconomy.Thispaperisdividedintofiveparts,thefirstpartistheintroduction,themainnarrativeisthebackgroundofsignificanceandtheresearchpurpose,contentandmethodsandtheexpressionofdomesticandforeignresearchpresentsituationandliteraturereview;Thesecondpartisoninternationaltradepricingtheoryandpricerisksrelatedtheory;Thethirdpartisthestudyofinternationalanddomesticdemandandsupplyofnaturalrubberandcirculationcharacteristics,andthroughstudyingthesupplyanddemandcurvesofnaturalrubberandconcludedthatsupplyanddemandhowtopricing;Thefourthpartistheanalyseandstudytheinfluencingfactorsofnaturalrubberfluctuationsinthepriceinimportingprocessinourcountry;Thefifthpartputforwardthemeasuresthatshouldbetakencorrespondingtotheinfluenceoftherisk.Afterthreepartisthekey,throughtheanalysisandstudyfromtheorytointernationalanddomesticrealitysituationandfeasibleriskavoidance,knownaturalrubbermarketdeeply.Keywords:Naturalrubber;Prices;Supplyanddemand目录1绪论................................................11.1选题背景................................................11.2国内外研究现状..........................................21.3研究目的及意义..........................................51.4研究内容................................................52贸易价格风险相关理论.................................72.1贸易定价理论............................................72.2商品价格风险............................................93天然橡胶供求分析及影响..............................113.1天然橡胶供求曲线分析...................................113.2天然橡胶供求现状分析.................................一三3.3天然橡胶供求对价格的影响.............................一五4中国天然橡胶进口价格波动的其他影响因素..............194.1国际影响因素...........................................194.2国内影响因素...........................................235中国应对天然橡胶国际价格风险的对策..................265.1国际方面应对策略.......................................265.2国内方面应对策略.......................................286结论................................................31参考文献.............................................32致谢辞...............................................34Appendix...........................
