张家港港口物流发展对策研究摘要近年来,长三角区域经济持续增长,长江沿岸口群也随之迅速发展。港口总体水平不断提高,形成了张家港港、江阴港、常熟港、上海港等部分港口相互竞争相互促进的新形式。现代化的港口不仅仅是从事于海陆运输中转,更是服务于国际贸易的全球运输网络中枢,是推动全球经济发展的重要节点。在这样严峻多变的生存发展环境下,张家港港口物流业的定位和发展意义重大。本文首先对张家港港口现有的资源和环境进行了分析,分析发现,张家港港口的现有资源和环境利于港口物流的进一步发展,但还存在着航线密度低、码头泊位等级低、物流服务体系建设落后等阻碍。继而本文运用灰色预测法科学预测张家港港口未来货物吞吐量,进一步了解张家港港口的货物吞吐能力。根据预测结果和港口现状做出了对应的对策措施。【关键词】张家港港口;港口物流;灰色预测法;对策措施StudyonDevelopmentCountermeasuresofZhangjiagangportlogisticsAbstractInrecentyears,theYangtzeRiverDeltaregion'seconomicgrowthhascontinued,andtheYangtzeRiverEstuarygrouphasalsodevelopedrapidly.Theoverallleveloftheporthasbeencontinuouslyimproved,forminganewformofcompetitionandmutualpromotionbetweenZhangjiagangport,Jiangyinport,ChangshuportandShanghaiport.Themodernportisnotonlyengagedinlandseatransportation,butalsoservesasthehuboftheglobaltransportationnetworkforinternationaltrade.Itisalsoanimportantnodetopromotetheglobaleconomicdevelopment.Insuchasevereandchangeableenvironmentofexistenceanddevelopment,theorientationanddevelopmentofZhangjiagangportlogisticsindustryisofgreatsignificance.Firstly,theportofZhangjiagangexistingresourcesandenvironmentareanalyzed.TheanalysisfoundthattheexistingresourcesandtheenvironmentconducivetothefurtherdevelopmentoftheportofZhangjiagangportlogistics,buttherearealsoroutesoflowdensity,lowlevelofberthandlogisticsservicesystemconstructionlagsbehindobstacles.Then,thispaperusesgreyforecastingmethodtopredictthefuturecargothroughputofZhangjiagangport,andfurtherunderstandthecargohandlingcapacityofZhangjiagangport.Accordingtothepredictionresultsandportstatus,correspondingcountermeasuresareproposed.[Keywords]Zhangjiagangport;portlogistics;greyforecastingmethod;countermeasures目录一、绪论......................................................................1(一)研究背景,目的与意义................................................1(二)国内外研究综述......................................................1二、张家港港口物流发展内外部资源环境分析......................................2(一)张家港港口物流发展概况..............................................3(二)外部资源和环境分析..................................................3(三)内部资源和环境分析..................................................5(四)港口物流发展总体分析................................................7三、张家港港口货物吞吐量预测..................................................7(一)张家港港口货物吞吐量发展概况........................................7(二)张家港港口货物吞吐量预测............................................7四、张家港港口物流发展对策措施...............................................12(一)优化港口码头建设...................................................12(二)优化航线,合理增辟航线.............................................12(三)发展现代航运服务体系...............................................13(四)加强信息化建设.....................................................13(五)促进港口横纵向集成....................................................