五邑大学本科毕业设计摘要本文对交通流预测的历史、背景、意义、发展现状以及路段交通流预测的基本框架、模型作了比较深入的探讨，通过对现有高速公路交通流预测模型和高速公路交通流特性分析的基础上，先对江门市目标路段进行了交通调查，采用神经网络的方法解决高速公路道路交通交通流量预测问题。论文首先介绍道路交通流量预测方法和BP神经网络的原理，然后建立交通流量智能预测模型，再用MATLAB软件对样本数据进行训练，在用训练好的模型对交通流量进行预测并对结果进行分析。实验表明，此种预测方法为路段短时交通流预测提供了一种有效的途径，对高速公路交通流量的预测具有积极的意义。关键词:高速公路；交通流；BP神经网络；预测I五邑大学本科毕业设计Abstract.Trafficflowprediction,thehistory,background,significance,developingstatusquoandbasicframeworkofroadtrafficflowprediction,modelaremadeain-depthdiscussioninthispaper.Basedontheexistinghighwaytrafficflowpredictionmodelandbasedontheanalysisofhighwaytrafficflowcharacteristics,thefirsttargetsectionsofjiangmencitytrafficsurveywascarriedout,usingtheneuralnetworkmethodtosolvetheproblemofhighwayroadtrafficflowprediction.ItintroducesroadtrafficflowpredictionmethodandtheprincipleofBPneuralnetwork,andthenestablishtrafficflowintelligentpredictionmodel,thenuseMATLABsoftwaretotrainingsampledata,inusingthetrainedmodeltoforecastthetrafficflowandanalyzetheresults.Experimentsshowthatthepredictionmethodofshort-termtrafficflowprediction,providesaneffectivewayforthehighwaytrafficflowforecasthasthepositivesignificance.KeywordsthehighwayTrafficflowTheBPneuralnetworkpredictionII五邑大学本科毕业设计目录摘要..........................................................................................................................................IAbstract..........................................................................................................................................II第1章绪论..................................................................................................................................11.1课题背景...........................................................................................................................11.2研究目的和意义...............................................................................................................11.3国内外文献综述...............................................................................................................21.4本论文主要内容...............................................................................................................2第2章交通流预测模型................................................................................................................32.1交通流理论基础...............................................................................................................32.2高速公路交通流模型.......................................................................................................62.2.1引言........................................................................................................................62.2.2宏观稳态交通模型................................................................................................72.2.3动态交通模型........................................................................................................72.2.4交通流预测的特点.............................................................................................
