沈阳理工大学学士学位论文摘要牛鞭效应是供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，是供应链上的信息流从最终客户端向原始供应商传递时，信息出现了扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动。牛鞭效应导致供应链中巨大的损失:它误导生产计划、导致过多的库存投资、收益减少，并且降低了服务水平，导致无效运输等等。由于牛鞭效应是供应链本身的结构决定的固有特性，是无法消除的。因此最大限度地削弱牛鞭效应的影响成为提高整个供应链效率，实现供应链管理目标的关键。论文首先采用了定性分析的方法对供应链管理中牛鞭效应的产生机理进行系统分析，然后在信息共享条件下运用回归分析法对具体案例进行分析，重点讨论订货提前期对牛鞭效应的影响，最后据此提出减轻的方法和措施。关键词：牛鞭效应；供应链；回归分析；订货提前期I沈阳理工大学学士学位论文AbstractThebullwhipeffectisademandvariabilityamplificationphenomenoninthesupplychain.Whentheinformationflowpassesfromtheend-clienttotheoriginalsupplierinthesupplychain,theinformationappearsdistortedandprogressivelyenlarges,andleadstothedemandinformationcausesgrowingfluctuations.Thebullwhipeffectcausesmuchlossinthesupplychain:itmisleadstheproductionplan,leadstoexcessiveinventoryinvestment,reducesearnings,reducesthelevelofservice,andcausesinvalidtransportandsoon.Becausetheinherentcharacteristicsofthestructureofthesupplychainleadthebullwhipeffect,soitcannotbeeliminated.Soweakenthebullwhipasmuchaspossibleisthekeyofimprovingtheefficiencyoftheentiresupplychain,andachievingthegoalofsupplychainmanagement.Firstly,thepapermakesasystematicanalysisofthemechanismofthebullwhipeffectinsupplychainmanagementbyamethodofqualitativeanalysis.Thenunderconditionsoftheinformationsharing,itusestheregressionanalysistoanalyzethespecificcase,andfocusesontheleadtime’sinfluencetothebullwhip.Atlastthepaperproposesthemethodsandmeasurestoweakthebullwhip.Keywords:bullwhipeffect;supplychain;regressionanalysis;leadtimeII沈阳理工大学学士学位论文目录1绪论....................................................................11.1研究的背景和意义..................................................11.2国内外研究现状....................................................21.3论文的研究内容和结构..............................................32供应链管理和牛鞭效应介绍...............................................52.1基本概念..........................................................52.1.1供应链管理概述..............................................52.1.2牛鞭效应概述.................................................62.2牛鞭效应的成因分析................................................82.3牛鞭效应的危害....................................................102.4减小牛鞭效应的措施................................................113牛鞭效应量化模型线性回归预测描述......................................153.1线性回归预测法概述...............................................153.2线性回归方程介绍..................................................163.3牛鞭效应量化模型.................................................184案例分析...............................................................204.1BMW物流介绍...................................................204.2数据收集及分析...................................................214.2.1非固定周期订货分析..........................................214.2.2固定周期订货分析...........................................254.2.3原因分析...................................................284.2.4解决方法叙述.................
