Practicallyallpeople(21)adesiretopredicttheirfuture(22)
Peopleseeminclinedto(23)thistaskusingcausalreasoning
First,wegenerally(24)thatfuturecircumstancesare(25)causedorconditionedbypresent(26)
Welearnthatgettinganeducationwill(27)howmuchmoneyweearnlaterinlifeandthatswimmingbeyondthereefmaybringanunhappy(28)withashark
Second,peoplealsolearnthatsuch(29)ofcauseandeffectareprobabilisticinnature
Thatis,theeffectsoccurmoreoftenwhenthecausesoccurthanwhenthecausesare(30)-butnotalways
(31),studentslearnthatstudyinghard(32)goodgradesinmostinstances,butnoteverytime
Sciencemakestheseconceptsofcausalityandprobabilitymoreexplicitand(33)techniquesfordealing(34)themmorerigorouslythandoescausalhumaninquiry
Itsharpenstheskillswealreadyhavebymakingusmoreconscious,rigorous,andexplicitinourinquiries
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