20XX年航空公司货运保障部门半年工作总结航空货运公司2011年终总结（英文版）as2011drawstoaclose，ahandfulofaircargoleadershavetakenthetimetoreflectonatumultuousyear.fromsupplychainsravagedbythejapanesetsunamitoeconomicinstabilitypermeatingtheu.s.andtheeurozone，theairfreightindustryhastakennumeroushitsthroughout2011.butcanthelessonsgleanedfromthesedifficulttimesbeusedtoavoidsimilarfatesinthefuture。inthefinalinstallmentofthethree-partseries（viewpartsoneandtwohere），hongkongaircargoterminalsltd.managingdirectormarkwhiteheadandemiratesairline’sdivisionalseniorvicepresident，cargo，rammenendiscussthepastyearandtheirprojectionsfor2012.whatwasthemostsignificantstorylineof2011。markwhitehead：amidthejapanesetsunamianditscommercialaftershocks，thenewzealandearthquake，squabbleswiththetransportationsecurityadministrationoverdeadlinestomeettheirheightenedsecurityrequirementsandtheongoingsagaofsurcharges，thedominantstorylineforusin2011wasfallingtonnagesonmajorroutes—particularlythoseoutofhongkong.butwearenotconvincedthatthisswathofnegativecoverageisreallyjustified—wefeeltherehavebeentoomanycomparisonsto2010，leadingtotheimpressionthat2011hasturnedouttobemuchworsethanitshould.inhactl’sowncase，wecouldfallfartherandyetstillbeatourpreviouspeakof2007，whichwouldbenosmallachievement.2010wasapost-recessionbouncefueledbyglobalrestocking，soitwasalwaysg第1页共4页oingtobehardtobeat.butmanyintheaircargoindustrythought2010wasasignofevenbetterthingstocomeandbudgetedforincrementalgrowthin2011.theynowhaveamajorproblem.rammenen：themarketslowdownis，obviously，thetopicthathasdominatedtheindustry.butwhatismostremarkableabout2011isthenumberanddiversityoffactorsthatcontributedtotheslowdown.naturaldisasters，suchasthetsunamiinjapanandthethaifloods，weremajoreventsthatnotonlyimpactedexportsandimportsinthosecountriesdirectly，butalsohitglobalsupplychains.productionlinesinfactorieswerehaltedduetothesuddenshortageofvitalcomponents.economicinstabilityhasalsobeenasignificantissue，withthevariouscrisesacrosseuropeandthepoliticalizationofthedeficitceilingintheu.s.allrockingconsumerconfidence.wealsocan’tforgetthesustainedhighcostoffuel，whichisanongoingchallengefortheaircargoindustry.ontheplusside，itwasgoodtoseetheboeing747-8fenterservice，whilethearabspringheraldsanewbeginningformanybusinessesintheregionandwillstimulateinternationaltrade.whatlessonshaveyoulearnedin2011thatwillhelpyouhaveasuccessful2012。menen：youcannevertrustforecasts.oldrulesdon’tapply，andthenewruleshaven’tbeenwritten.theindustryisbecominglesspredictableeveryyear，withmoreandmorechallengesarising.ofcourse，thepriceofoilisalwayssomethingwehavetocontendwith，but，worryingly，naturaldisastersseemtobehappeningatamorefrequentrate，whileincreasinglymorenationaleconomiesare第2页共4页struggling.wearecontinuallylearning，andeverychallengehelpsusbecomebetterpreparedtomanagewhatevernewchallenges2012brings.whitehead：asarelativenewcomertothisindustry（ibecamehactl’smanagingdirectorinseptember2010），butalong-termobserverofotherswhileworkingataseniorlevel，ihavequicklylearnedhowsensitiveaircargoistothehealthoftheglobaleconomyandhowreactiveitistoconsumerdemand.aircargoisabusinessthatcanboominresponsetothereleaseofasingle，newpieceofconsumertechnology（i.e，theiphone4，thelatestplaystationorthekindle）orcrashbecausefearsofdefaultsinonesmalleconomyhavethreatenedtoupsetthecurrencyof16others.inowrealizethatthemajorstrengthofaircargo—itsabilitytorespondtosuddenchangesinconsumerdemand—isalsoitsmajorweakness.i’mdevelopingtheviewthatanypredictioninaircargoispointlessifit’sbasedonlyonarecentorshort-livedtrend（liketheonedisplayedin2010），ratherthantheextrapolationofalong-termpicturethathasbeenprovenrightbyhistory.youcouldsaythatthisrisksmissingthenextmajoropportunity，butidon’tthinkso.itavoidstheequallyseriousriskofassuminglotsofadditionaloverheadthatcouldquicklybecomeamillstoneifpredictionsfallshort.historyusuallyrepeatsitself，andlong-termtrendsofthepast，whichincorporatepastpeaksandtroughs，areamuchbetterbasisforpredictingfuturetrends.thataloneisnotenough，however.thetrickissurelyalsotofactorinadditionalgrowthfromrealprospectsofbusinessgainsthatarewithinyourinfluenceandconsiderthepossibleeffectsofanyrealorprobablethreats.butyoumustalsoacceptthattheshort-termpicturemaystillbeimpactedeitherpositivelyornegative第3页共4页lybytotallyunforeseeneventsbeyondourcontrol.afterall，that’saircargo.第4页共4页
