陆克文北京大学演讲goodday，mynameiskevin.iamfromaustralia.i’mheretohelp.tonight，iwanttotalkaboutataleoftwocities.oneofthosecitiesiscalledwashington，andtheotheriscalledbeijing.becausehowthesetwocapitalsshapetheirfuture，andthefutureoftheunitedstatesandthefutureofchinadoesn’tjustaffectthosetwocountries，itaffectsallofus.inways，perhaps，we’veneverthoughtof.theairwebreathe，thewaterwedrink，thefishweeat，thequalityofouroceans，thelanguageswespeakinthefuture，thejobswehave，thepoliticalsystemswechoose，and，ofcourse，thegreatquestionsofwarandpeace.youseethatbloke。he’sfrench.hisnameisnapoleon.acoupleofhundredyearsago，hemadehisextraordinaryprojection：“chinaisasleepinglion，andwhenshewakes，theworldwillshake.”napoleongotafewthingswrong，hegotthisoneabsolutelyright.becausechinaistodaynotjustwokenup，chinahasstoopupandchinaisonthemarch，andthequestionforusalliswherewillchinago，andhowdoweengagethisgiantofthe21stcentury。youstartlookingatthenumbers，theystarttoconfrontyouinbigway.itisprojectedthatchinawillbecomebywhichevermeasure，ppp，marketexchangerates，thelargesteconomyintheworldoverthecourseofthedecadeahead.they’realreadythelargesttradingnation，alreadythelargestexportingnation，alreadythelargestmanufacturingnation，andthey’realsothebiggestemittersofcarbonintheworld.americacomessecond.soifchinadoesbecometheworld’slargesteconomy，thinkaboutthis：it’llbethefirsttime，sincethisguywasonthethroneofengland，georgeiii，notagoodfriendofnapoleon’s，thatintheworldwewillhaveasthelargesteconomy，anon-第1页共6页englishspeakingcountry，anon-westerncountry，anon-liberaldemocraticcountry.andifyoudon’tthinkthat’sgoingtoaffectthewayinwhichtheworldhappensinthefuture，thenpersonally，ithinkyou’vebeensmokingsomething，anditdoesn’tmeanyou’refromcolorado.soinshort，thequestionwehavetonightis，howdoweunderstandthismegachange，whichibelievetobethebiggestchangeforthefirsthalfofthe21stcentury。it’llaffectsomanythings.itwillgototheabsolutecore.it’shappeningquietly.it’shappeningpersistently.it’shappeninginsomesensesundertheradar，asweareallpreoccupiedwithwhat’sgoinginukraine，what’sgoingoninthemiddleeast，what’sgoingonwithisis，what’sgoingonwithisil，what’shappeningwiththefutureofoureconomies.thisisaslowandquietrevolution.andwithamegachangecomesalsoamegachallenge，andthemegachallengeisthis：canthesetwogreatcountries，chinaandtheunitedstates.china，themiddlekingdom.andtheunitedstates，美国.whichinchinese，bytheway，means“thebeautifulcountry”.thinkaboutthat-----that’sthenamethatchinahasgiventhiscountryformorethanahundredyears.whetherthesetwogreatcivilizations，thesetwogreatcountries，caninfactcarveoutacommonfutureforthemselvesandfortheworld。inshort，canwecarveoutafuturewhichispeacefulandmutuallyprosperous，orarewelookingatagreatchallengeofwarorpeace。andihave15minutestoworkthroughwarorpeace，whichisalittlelesstimethantheygavethisguytowriteabookcalled“warandpeace”.peopleaskme，whyisitthatakidgrowingupinruralaustraliagotinterestinginlearningchinese。well，therearetworeasonsforthat.hereisthefirstofthem.thatisbetsy，thecow.now，betsythecowwasoneofaherdofdairycattlethatigrewupwithonafarminruralaustralia.seethosehandsthere。therearenotbuiltforfarming.soveryearlyon第2页共6页，idiscoveredthatinfact，workinginafarmwasnotdesignedforme，andchinawasaverysaferemovefromanycareerinaus...
