黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化的社会稳定风险评价研究摘要党的十八大报告中首次用“农业转移人口”替代了“农民工”，并明确指出让“农业转移人口”共享城镇化利益，有序推进农业转移人口市民化。我国农业转移人口是在新型城镇化过程中最重要也是最为脆弱的群体，规模庞大、地区分布和行业分布都较为广泛的特性使他们很容易成为社会稳定风险的高发群体。黑龙江省作为农业人口比重较大的省份，更加需要科学合理地评估社会稳定风险并有针对性地控制风险。本文利用科学的方法对黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化的社会稳定风险进行评价，这对政府控制社会稳定风险有重要的理论和实践意义。首先本文对黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化现状进行了系统地梳理，从市民化特点出发，深入分析了市民化中出现的的社会问题以及产生原因。其次，借助扎根理论的译码过程识别社会稳定风险因素，构建风险评价指标体系，包括政治风险、经济风险、环境风险、社会管理风险、制度风险、传播风险和心理感知风险7个一级指标和19个二级指标。再次，根据专家打分收集的评价数据，利用AHP-模糊综合评价方法建立黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化的社会稳定风险评价模型，实证分析得出社会稳定风险正处于中风险水平。最后，结合以往政府治理经验，针对风险重要程度，分别从特色产业开发、就业培训机制、制度环境、城市融入、政府责任以及重点产业等方面提出黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化社会稳定风险控制建议。关键词:农业转移人口；市民化；社会稳定风险评价AbstractThe18thNationalCongressoftheCommunistPartyofChinareplaces"MigrantWorkers"with"AgriculturalTransferingPopulation"forthefirsttime,andputsforwardclearlythatallowingthemtoshareinterestsofurbanization,grantingurbanresidencyinanorderlymannertoruralpeoplewhohavemovedtocities.Agriculturaltransferingpopulationisthemostimportantandthemostvulnerablegroupsintheprocessofnew-typeurbanization,thiskindofpopulationisbig,workinginvariousregionsandindustries,easilybecomeahighincidencegroupofsocialstabilityrisk.Asalargeproportionofagriculturalpopulation,Heilongjiangprovinceneedmorescientificandreasonablesocialstabilityriskassessmentandtargetedriskcontrol.UsingscientificmethodstoassessthelevelofsocialstabilityriskduringagriculturaltransferingpopulationurbanizationinHeilongjiangprovince,hasimportanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificanceforthesocialstabilityriskcontrol.Firstly,thearcticlesystematicallyreviewscitizenizationstatusofagriculturaltransferingpopulationofHeilongjiangprovince.Fromtheurbanizationcharacteristics,thoroughanalyzethesocialproblemsandcausesoccurredintheurbanization.Then,identifyriskfactorsforsocialstabilitywiththehelpofadecodingprocessofgroundedtheory,andonthisbasis,establishthesocialstabilityriskevaluationindexsystemofagriculturaltransferingpopulation’scitizenizationprocess,includingsevenprimaryindex,suchaspoliticalrisk,economicrisk,environmentrisk,socialmanagementrisk,systemrisk,communicationriskandpsychologicalperceptionrisk;Andnineteentheirsubordinatesecondaryriskfactors.Again,accordingtotheevaluationdatacollectedbyexpertscoring,establishsocialstabilityriskassessmentmodelofagriculturetransferingpopulationcitizenizationofheilongjiangprovincebyusingAHPandfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethod.Theempiricalanalysisconcludesthatsocialstabilityriskisatmediumlevel.Finally,combinetheexperienceofpreviousgovernmentgovernance,inviewoftheimportantdegreeofthesocialstabilityrisk,makingsuggestionsaboutsocialstabilityriskcontrolofheilongjiangprovinceintheprocessofagriculturaltransferingpopulationcitizenization.Keywords:Agriculturaltransferingpopulation;Citizenization;Theevaluationofsocialst...
