建构中的东北亚危机管理模式——以天安舰事件为例摘要冷战结束后，世界安全形势发生了深刻变化。传统安全问题仍然存在，非传统安全问题不断涌现。随着全球化深入推进，国际危机频频发生，并且以其高威胁性、高扩散性、高紧迫性等特点，对人类社会构成重大安全挑战。如何应对和有效管理国际危机，成为当今国际安全中的重要课题，兼具冷战遗留特征的东北亚安全局势也同样面临这一问题。在东北亚危机管理的历史中，出现过一些基本的危机管理模式，例如谈判、第三方干预、威慑、有限战争等。本文首先通过梳理以往案例，呈现出这些管理模式，然后借助天安舰事件的实例分析验证了相关模式的有效性，进而提出建构中的东北亚危机管理模式，即以国际谈判为主导，选择性地引入第三方干预，间或伴有威慑战略的管理模式。该模式的提出为管理东北亚地区国际危机提供了宏观模型。需要指出的是，在未来的东北亚危机管理模式建构中，出于地区稳定和管理效果的考虑，威慑战略不应成为主要选择之一。此外，本文还认为，要实现东北亚地区的长期安全与稳定，需要践行一条经由危机管理通往地区安全机制的可能之路。六方会谈为东北亚安全机制的建立提供了基础性框架，在此基础上，建构东北亚安全机制具有重要的意义。关键词：东北亚；危机管理模式；天安舰；六方会谈；安全机制IAbstractSincetheendoftheColdWar,worldsecuritysituationhaschangedprofoundly.Astraditionalsecurityissuespersisting,non-traditionalsecurityissuesarecontinuouslyemerging.Withthefurtheradvanceofglobalization,thefrequentoccurrenceofinternationalcrisesfeaturingbyhigh-threatening,fastproliferatingandhighurgencychallengethesecurityofhumansocietysignificantly.Howtoeffectivelymanagetheseinternationalcrisesisanimportantissueinthestudyofinternationalsecurity.PrintedwiththeColdWar,thesecuritysituationofNortheastAsiaisfacingthesameproblem.InthehistoryofcrisismanagementinNortheastAsia,thereweresomebasiccrisismanagementmodes,suchasnegotiation,third-partyintervention,deterrence,limitedwar.Thispaperwillfirstlyanalyzecases,demonstratingthemanagementmodes.Secondly,takesCheonanissueasanexampletoprovethevalidityoftherelevantmodes.Thirdly,thepaperwillconstructtheproposedNortheasternAsiacrisismanagementmode:internationalnegotiationsarethedominantforceinthemanagementstrategywithselectivethirdpartyinterventionandseldomdeterrence.ThemodelproposedforthemanagementofinternationalcrisesinNortheastAsiaprovidesamacromodel.ItshouldbenotedthatinthefutureconstructionofcrisismanagementmodeinNortheastAsia,forregionalstabilityandmanagementeffectivenessconsiderations,deterrenceshouldnotbethemainchoice.Inaddition,thepaperalsobelievesthattoachievelong-termsecurityandstabilityinNortheastAsia,apracticethatthecrisismanagementshoulddeveloptoaregionalsecuritymechanismisneeded.Six-partytalkhasprovidedabasicframeworkfortheestablishmentofNortheastAsiansecuritymechanism.Onthisbasis,theconstructionoftheNortheastAsiansecuritymechanismisofgreatsignificance.KeyWords:NortheastAsiaCrisisManagementCheonanIncidentSix-partyTalksSecurityRegimesII目录第一章国际危机与危机管理......................................................................................1一、危机..........................................................................................................1二、国际危机..................................................................................................3第一节国际危机管理的内涵...............................................................................4一、国际危机管理的概念...............................................................................
