基于var模型的上市房地产公司股价影响因素研究摘要房地产产业是我国经济高速发展的重要支柱，相关房地产上市企业也是我国资本市场的重要组成部分。房地产行业在我国有着很重要的经济地位，并且房地产公司的总体运营情况都会反应在股价上面。本文在已有研究基础上研究CPI、货币和准货币供应量M2、上海银行间同业拆放利率Shibor对我国房地产上市公司股价的影响，利用VAR模型，Johansen协整检验以及脉冲响应分析与房地产上市公司股价影响进行验证，通过实证结果得出结论并提出建议。关键词：房地产上市公司；居民消费价格指数；利率；VAR模型ResearchonInfluencingFactorsofstockpriceoflistedrealestatecompaniesbasedonVARmodelAbstractTherealestateindustryisanimportantpillarofChina'srapideconomicdevelopment,andrelatedrealestatelistedenterprisesarealsoanimportantpartofChina'scapitalmarket.TherealestateindustryhasaveryimportanteconomicpositioninChina,andtheoveralloperationofrealestatecompanieswillbereflectedinthestockprice.Basedontheexistingresearch,thispaperstudiestheimpactofCPI,currencyandquasi-moneysupplyM2,andShanghaiinterbankofferedrateShiboronthestockpricesoflistedrealestatecompaniesinChina,andverifiesthelong-termimpactofVARmodel,Johansencointegrationtestandimpulseresponseanalysiswiththestockpricesoflistedrealestatecompanies,anddrawsconclusionsandmakesrecommendationsthroughempiricalresults.Keywords:Listedrealestatecompanies；ConsumerPriceIndex；interestrate，VARmodel目录一、引言.........................................................................................................................................................1（一）论文写作的目的和现实意义.............................................................................................1（二）国内现状.............................................................................................................................2（三）提出论文的中心论点.........................................................................................................2二、指标与数据选取.....................................................................................................................................2（一）地产指数.............................................................................................................................2（二）货币和准货币供应量（M2）.............................................................................................3（三）消费者物价指数（CPI）...................................................................................................3（四）Shibor（一年期）.............................................................................................................4三、实证研究.................................................................................................................................................5（一）研究样本.............................................................................................................................5（二）VAR模型简介......................................................................................................................5（三）最优滞后阶数选择.............................................................................................................6（四）平稳性检验与协整检验.....................................................................................................6（五）Granger因果检验...........................................
