基于多项式模型GDP趋势的预测与研究摘要： 国内生产总值 (GDP)是现代国民经济核算体系的核心指标，是衡量一个国家综合国力的重要指标。本文就1800 年到 2010 年的生产总值 (GDP)等相关统计数据，先建立了关于GDP 的点点对应关系图形，大致观察出点点之间的变化趋势，之后预测出年份与GDP 之间的关系函数为y=a*exp(x+b) 。利用 matlab软件对函数拟合求出相应的参数，从而预测了出在之后几年里的GDP 的多少年的 GDP 总量。为了得到更好的预测结果，本文建立了指数模型。通过计算相关函数来衡量模型的可靠性和可用性。选取该指数模型，预计中国GDP 将继续保持增长，不过增长率缓慢下降。猜想：GDP 年增长率最后将趋于稳定。关键词： GDP；回归预测模型；指数模型Abstract：Gross domestic product (GDP) is a key index of modern system of national economic accounting, is an important indicator to measure a country's comprehensive national strength.Our country in 1800 to 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) and other related statistical data, first established on the GDP bit corresponding relationship graph, generally observed trends between the points, then predict the relation function between year and GDP as Y=a*exp (x+b).Using MATLAB software to function fitting to compute the corresponding parameters, can be predicted in the years GDP years of total GDP.In order to predict the results better, this paper established the index model. Reliability and availability by calculating the correlation function to measure model. The selection of the index model, is expected to Chinese GDP will continue to maintain growth, but growth rate slow down. Guess: GDP annual growth rate of the stable. Keywords: GDP; regression model; exponential model 1 引言1.1 研究的背景及意义国内生产总值 (Gross Domestic Product，简称 GDP)是指在一定时期内 (一个季度或一年 )，一个国家或地区的经济中所生产出的全部最终产品和劳务的价值，常被公认为衡量国家经济状况的最佳指标。它不但可反映一个国家的经...
