流行病学发展的回顾和展望

1 流行病学发展的回顾与展望李立明1， 王艳红，吕筠1 中国医学科学院北京协和医学院，北京2 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，北京【摘要】流行病学是在人类与疾病作斗争的过程形成和发展起来的一门应用学科，在探索疾病病因、 预防控制疾病、 制定和评价公共卫生策略措施，以及改善人群健康等诸多方面扮演着重要的角色。 随着人类疾病谱的变化和医学模式的转变，流行病学的应用范围已经由传染性疾病扩展到慢性非传染性疾病、伤害和健康相关领域等，流行病学理论和方法也日趋完善成熟，它已经成为预防医学的基础学科和现代医学的骨干学科，被誉为“公共卫生之母 ”。本文扼要地回顾了流行病学的发展历程，归纳总结了近些年流行病发展趋势，探讨了今后流行病学发展可能面临的挑战与困惑。【关键词】流行病学；历史；研究方法 Epidemiology: history and challenges LI Liming1, WANG Yanhong2, LV Jun2. 1.Chinese Academy of Medical Science, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100005, China; 2.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100083, China 【Abstract 】 Epidemiology is defined as “the study of the distribution and determinants of healthrelated states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to control of health problems.” During nearly 100 years of development, it has been the basic science of public health and the backbone of modern medicine. With the changing pattern of disease in populations, the applications of epidemiology now have expanded from infectious diseases to chronic, noncommunicable diseases, injuries and healthrelated events. Moreover its theories and methods are becoming increasingly rich and mature. In this paper we briefly review the history of epidemiology, features of modern epidemiology, and the challenges and confusions in the future. 【Key words 】Epidemiology; History; Research methods (Chin J Dis Control Prev 2008，12(4) ：304308) 1 ...