精品文档---下载后可任意编辑08 应数徐路 A00814155 卢书浩 A00814135【摘要】农业是国民经济的基础，而粮食生产则是农业进展的根本问题。作为农业大国，粮食生产对于我国的经济进展和人民生活水平的提高都起着举足轻重的作用，因此，对粮食产量的预测及影响产量相关因素的分析就显得尤为重要。本文从宏观角度综合考虑影响粮食生产的化肥施用量、播种面积、成灾面积、农业机械劳动力、农业劳动力和国家财政用于农业的支出六大要素，分别用线性与非线性模型拟合中国粮食生产模型，并对中国粮食生产情况进行综合分析。【关键词】粮食产量 多重共线 序列相关 异方差The analysis of China’s grain production modelAbstract: Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and grain production is the basic problem of its development. To China, a large agricultural country, grain production is of vital importance to its economic development and the improvement of people's living standard. As a result, it is especially essential to predict grain production and analyze the related factors to it. Using the linear and nonlinear model, an overall analysis about grain production in China is presented in this paper, which is achieved through the consideration of the six main factors macroscopically---fertilizer consumption, sown area, disaster-hitting area, machinery labour, manpower and financial expenditure.Keywords: grain production; multicollinearity; serial correlation; heteroscedasticity1．文献分析李子奈教授曾对我国 1983~1995 年粮食生产数据进行过分析[4]，得出其主要受化肥施用量、播种面积、成灾面积影响的结论，并建立了非线性生产模型。 田新建在 Research on the Cost of Foodstuff Production in China[7]中提到，影响粮食产量的因素出了前面的三点之外，人力资源，政策和国家投入也是十分重要的方面。本文将运用计量经济学方法对李子奈教授的模型进行讨论，并且建立线性模型与之比较。除了选取元哟模型中的影响因素外，我们把农业机械劳动力、农业劳动力和国家财政用于农业的支出也加到模型中去，更全面地讨论影响全国...
