投资者非理性预期对房价波动产生的影响问题探讨论文

本科论文摘 要近几年来，房价成为了社会上的热门话题。因此，针对这一现象, 本文对有关文献进行综述，并对国内外相关理论进行了分析。首先本文阐述了非理性预期的形成机理。其次，尝试找出房价合理估价的方式。再次，分析了非理性预期下买房者、卖房者以及租房者的行为选择。本文通过研究，发现投资者受到非理性宣传、对房价不合理估价以及金融市场对房价监管不利都影响着房价的波动。因此，建议加强政府对投资者非理性的宣传、限制投资者非理性购房行为、投资者购房时应进行合理预期以及提高金融市场对房价的监管调控。为我国政府稳定房价以及投资者理性购房提供相关意见和建议。关键词：非理性预期，房价，房地产泡沫本科论文AbstractIn recent years, house price has become a hot topic in the society. Therefore, in view of this phenomenon, this paper reviews the relevant literature and analyzes the relevant theories at home and abroad. Firstly, this paper explains the formation mechanism of irrational expectations. Secondly, this paper try to figure out the way to make a reasonable valuation of house prices. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the behavior choices of buyers, sellers and renters under irrational expectations. Through research, this paper finds that irrational propaganda of investors, unreasonable valuation of house prices and financial market’s unfavorable supervision of house prices all affect the fluctuation of house prices. Therefore, it is proposed to strengthen the government’s irrational propaganda to investors, to restrict investors’ irrational purchase behavior, to make reasonable expectations when investors purchase houses, and to improve the financial market’s supervision of house prices. To provide relevant opinions and suggestions for our government to stabilize house prices and investors to purchase houses rationally.Key words: irrational expectations, house prices, estate bubble本科论文 目 录前 言.........................