基于指数平滑法的南京市 物流需求预测及发展研究 摘 要在经济全球化快速发展的今日，全球的市场竞争程度日益增加，物流量的大幅度增长，使物流成为国家发展的经济动脉。物流需求预测是物流发展的前提，我们可以通过物流需求预测，及时了解经济活动的物流需求量，对预测到的物流需求量及时的满足经济活动中的物流需求，以保证物流服务和需求的平衡，使经济建设和物流协调发展。本文选取南京市作为分析的对象，首先根据国内外学者对物流需求预测的研究进行总结，其次对南京市的物流发展现状进行分析，从总体经济发展现状、物流基础设施发展现状、物流发展现状进行深入剖析；然后运用指数平滑法对南京市的公路、水路、铁路及航空的货运量进行科学的预测；最后根据分析预测出来的结果，对南京市的物流发展结合实际情况提出建议，从而来促进南京市物流的发展。【关键词】：南京；物流需求；指数平滑法 Prediction and development of logistics demand in Nanjing based on exponential smoothing method Abstract In the rapid development of economic globalization today, the global market competition is increasing, the substantial increase in logistics, logistics to become the national economic development of the artery. Logistics demand forecast is the premise of the development of logistics, we can forecast the logistics needs, to keep abreast of the logistics needs of economic activities, to predict the demand for logistics in a timely manner to meet the logistics needs of economic activities to ensure the balance of logistics services and needs , So that economic development and logistics coordinated development. This paper chooses Nanjing as the object of analysis. First of all, according to the domestic and foreign scholars to summarize the study of logistics demand forecast, followed by the analysis of the status of logistics development in Nanjing, from the overall economic development status, logistics infrastructure development status, logistics development status And then ...
