第1页共46页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共46页实验指南第2页共46页第1页共46页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第2页共46页目录实验一分析太阳黑子数序列··········································3实验二模拟AR模型·················································4实验三模拟MA模型和ARMA模型····································6实验四分析化工生产量数据··········································8实验五模拟ARIMA模型和季节ARIMA模型···························10实验六分析美国国民生产总值的季度数据·····························13实验七分析国际航线月度旅客总数数据·······························16实验八干预模型的建模·············································19实验九传递函数模型的建模·········································22实验十回归与时序相结合的建第3页共46页第2页共46页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第3页共46页模·····································25太阳黑子年度数据··················································28美国国民收入数据··················································29化工生产过程的产量数据············································30国际航线月度旅客数据··············································30洛杉矶臭氧每小时读数的月平均值数据································31煤气炉数据························································35芝加哥某食品公司大众食品周销售数据································37牙膏市场占有率周数据··············································39某公司汽车生产数据················································44加拿大山猫数据·································第4页共46页第3页共46页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第4页共46页···················44实验一分析太阳黑子数序列一、实验目的：了解时间序列分析的基本步骤，熟悉SAS/ETS软件使用方法。二、实验内容：分析太阳黑子数序列。三、实验要求：了解时间序列分析的基本步骤，注意各种语句的输出结果。四、实验时间：2小时。五、实验软件：SAS系统。六、实验步骤1、开机进入SAS系统。2、创建名为exp1的SAS数据集，即在窗中输入下列语句：dataexp1;inputa1@@;year=intnx(‘year’,’1jan1742’d,_n_-1);formatyearyear4.;cards;输入太阳黑子数序列(见附表)run;3、保存此步骤中的程序，供以后分析使用（只需按工具条上的保存按钮然后填写完提问后就可以把这段程序保存下来即可）。4、绘数据与时间的关系图，初步识别序列，输入下列程序：procgplotdata=exp1;symboli=splinev=starh=2c=green;第5页共46页第4页共46页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第5页共46页plota1*year;run;5、提交程序，在graph窗口中观...
