土地利用规划实验报告姓名：***专业：土地资源与城乡规划班级：4*********2学号：***********基础数据预测.................................................................1一、人口预测.............................................................1二、城市化水平预测.......................................................3三、农作物单产预测.......................................................6土地需求量预测...............................................................8一、粮食需求量预测.......................................................8二、耕地需求量预测......................................................12三、建设用地面积预测....................................................14实习体会....................................................................17基础数据预测一、人口预测根据重庆统计信息网2013年统计年鉴得到2000年到2012年的人口数据，按农村和城镇（即农业和非农业）人口。并运用一元线性回归和人口自然增长法预测出2013到2020年的人口。方法一：趋势外推法之线性预测表一：单位：万人(10000persons)年份总户数(万户)总人口按性别分按农业、非农业分BySexByResidenceYearTotalNumberofHouseholds(10000households)TotalPopulation男女农业非农业MaleFemaleAgricultureNon-agriculture2000938.873091.091611.681479.412430.20660.892001950.563097.911614.911483.002408.39689.522002961.693113.831623.131490.702392.38721.452003977.013130.101631.661498.442376.18753.922004988.593144.231637.181507.052358.40785.8320051010.413169.161649.261519.902351.88817.2820061030.663198.871662.771536.102353.44845.4320071056.973235.321681.101554.222358.35876.9720081080.153257.051690.561566.492349.67907.3820091110.703275.611697.691577.922326.92948.6920101154.833303.451709.031594.422196.451107.0020111205.203329.811720.531609.282052.171277.6420121220.643343.441725.871617.572026.191317.2520133366.1720143389.0320153411.8920163434.7420173457.6020183480.4620193503.3220203526.18运用excel对x和y两列数据做散点图，其散点图形状如下：重庆市人口y=22.859x-42649R2=0.98673000.003100.003200.003300.003400.003500.003600.00200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020系列1线性(系列1)图一方法二：人口自然增长法人口自然增长法是以已知数据的每一年作为基期，利用自然增长率和机械增长率分别求取规划期规划期末人口数量的方法。表二：单位：万人、‰(10000persons,‰)年份出生死亡自然增长总人口BirthDeathNaturalGrowthYear人口出生率人口死亡率人口自然增长率TotalPopulationPopulationBirthRatePopulationDeathRatePopulationNaturalGrowthRate200035.2211.4324.597.9810.633.453091.09200126.268.4818.766.067.502.423097.91200228.659.2018.075.8010.583.403113.83200330.009.6118.055.7811.953.833130.10200433.7210.7423.447.4710.283.273144.23200530.669.7113.884.4016.785.313169.16200636.5711.4914.894.6821.686.813198.87200744.6613.8816.565.1528.108.733235.32200843.2613.3324.567.5718.705.763257.05200940.8212.5026.138.0014.694.503275.61201062.8319.1038.9711.8523.867.253303.45201141.2712.4419.555.9021.726.543329.81201236.7611.0223.837.1412.933.883343.4420133473.1720143607.9220153747.9120163893.3320174044.3920184201.3120194364.3320204533.66计算公式：)01(0tttKKPP（机械自然）Pt——规划年人口数、Pt0——基期年人口数、t-t0——预测年期、K自然——自然然增长率、K机械——机械增长率人口预测总结：预测建立在在到未来2020年人口生存的社会环境相对稳定的情况下的。由于人口变化规律比较接近于一次线性函数关系（图一）所以采用了一元线性回归方法预测（42649859.22xy）。方法二中假...
