摘要近年来，中国文化出口额逐年增大，文化产业已逐渐成为经济发展的强大动力之一，中国文化输出问题也越来越受到学界的重视。特别是在一带一路战略下，如何增加中国与沿线国家之间文化出口额已成为重要议题之一。当前，孔子学院作为宣传本国传统文化和语言的重要工具，在一带一路沿线国家逐步建立，目前已有51个一带一路国家建立了共153个孔子学院。但如何理解孔子学院对中国文化出口的影响机制，如何更好的发挥孔子学院对文化出口的促进作用?从而为孔子学院的建设提出建议。本文选定核心文化产品出口额及核心文化服务出口额作为因变量，以孔子学院的建立个数及建立年份作为自变量，用修正的贸易引力模型实证研究得出孔子学院的建立对文化出口具有促进作用，并通过加入文化距离与孔子学院的交互项来验证孔子学院的建立可以削弱文化距离对中国文化出口的负向影响。随后对成功孔子学院案例进行分析，对一带一路上国家如何更好的建立孔子学院提出政策建议，促使孔子学院向更深层次发展，进一步增强孔子学院的文化出口增长效应。【关键词】文化产品出口；文化服务出口；孔子学院；一带一路；贸易引力模型IAbstractAbstractInrecentyears,theexportvolumeofChineseculturehasincreasedyearbyyear,andtheculturalindustryhasgraduallybecomeoneofthepowerfulenginesofeconomicdevelopment.TheissueofChineseculturaloutputhasalsoreceivedmoreandmoreattentionfromtheacademiccircles.EspeciallyundertheBeltandRoadstrategy,howtoincreasetheamountofculturalexportsbetweenChinaandcountriesalongtheroutehasbecomeoneoftheimportantissues.Atpresent,theConfuciusInstituteisanimportanttoolforpromotingitstraditionalcultureandlanguage.IthasbeengraduallyestablishedalongtheBeltandRoad.Countrieshaveestablishedatotalof153ConfuciusInstitutesin51BeltandRoadcountries.However,howtounderstandtheinfluencemechanismofConfuciusInstitutesonChineseculturalexports,howtobetterplaytheroleofConfuciusInstitutesinpromotingculturalexports,andthusmakerecommendationsfortheconstructionofConfuciusInstitutes.Inthispaper,theexportvalueofcoreculturalproductsandtheexportvalueofcoreculturalservicesareselectedasthedependentvariables.ThenumberofestablishedConfuciusInstitutesandtheyearofestablishmentareusedasindependentvariables.TheempiricalstudyoftherevisedtradegravitationmodelshowsthattheestablishmentofConfuciusInstituteshasculturalexports.PromotingtheroleandverifyingtheestablishmentoftheConfuciusInstitutebyaddingculturaldistancestotheConfuciusInstitutecanweakenthenegativeimpactofculturaldistanceonChineseculturalexports.Subsequently,thesuccessfulConfuciusInstitutecasewasanalyzedtoproposepolicyrecommendationsforhowtobetterestablishConfuciusInstitutesontheBeltandRoad,andpromotetheConfuciusInstitutetofurtherdevelopandfurtherenhancetheculturalexportgrowtheffectoftheConfuciusInstitute.【keywords】CulturalProductExport;ConfuciusInstitute;BeltandRoad;DoubleDifferenceEstimationII目录目录1绪论...........................................................11.1研究问题的背景及意义......................................11.2研究内容与技术路线........................................21.3研究方法与创新点..........................................21.3.1研究方法...............................................21.3.2创新点.................................................32文献综述.....................................................42.1文化出口的影响因素.......................................42.2文化距离对文化出口的影响.................................42.3孔子学院对文化出口的影响.................................63现状分析：孔子学院建立情况及中国文化出口现状...
