基于指数平滑法的南京市物流需求预测及发展研究摘要在经济全球化快速发展的今日，全球的市场竞争程度日益增加，物流量的大幅度增长，使物流成为国家发展的经济动脉。物流需求预测是物流发展的前提，我们可以通过物流需求预测，及时了解经济活动的物流需求量，对预测到的物流需求量及时的满足经济活动中的物流需求，以保证物流服务和需求的平衡，使经济建设和物流协调发展。本文选取南京市作为分析的对象，首先根据国内外学者对物流需求预测的研究进行总结，其次对南京市的物流发展现状进行分析，从总体经济发展现状、物流基础设施发展现状、物流发展现状进行深入剖析；然后运用指数平滑法对南京市的公路、水路、铁路及航空的货运量进行科学的预测；最后根据分析预测出来的结果，对南京市的物流发展结合实际情况提出建议，从而来促进南京市物流的发展。【关键词】：南京；物流需求；指数平滑法PredictionanddevelopmentoflogisticsdemandinNanjingbasedonexponentialsmoothingmethodAbstractIntherapiddevelopmentofeconomicglobalizationtoday,theglobalmarketcompetitionisincreasing,thesubstantialincreaseinlogistics,logisticstobecomethenationaleconomicdevelopmentoftheartery.Logisticsdemandforecastisthepremiseofthedevelopmentoflogistics,wecanforecastthelogisticsneeds,tokeepabreastofthelogisticsneedsofeconomicactivities,topredictthedemandforlogisticsinatimelymannertomeetthelogisticsneedsofeconomicactivitiestoensurethebalanceoflogisticsservicesandneeds,Sothateconomicdevelopmentandlogisticscoordinateddevelopment.ThispaperchoosesNanjingastheobjectofanalysis.Firstofall,accordingtothedomesticandforeignscholarstosummarizethestudyoflogisticsdemandforecast,followedbytheanalysisofthestatusoflogisticsdevelopmentinNanjing,fromtheoveralleconomicdevelopmentstatus,logisticsinfrastructuredevelopmentstatus,logisticsdevelopmentstatusAndthenusetheexponentialsmoothingmethodtoforecastthetrafficvolumeofhighway,waterway,railwayandairinNanjing.Finally,accordingtotheresultspredictedandanalyzed,thepaperputsforwardsomesuggestionsonthedevelopmentoflogisticsinNanjing.TheDevelopmentofLogisticsinNanjing.[Keywords]Nanjing;Logisticsdemand;Exponentialsmoothing目录一、绪论··········································································································································1（一）研究背景、目的与意义····························································································1（二）国内外研究综述········································································································1二、南京市物流发展现状分析·······································································································3（一）南京市总体经济发展现状······················································································3（二）南京物流基础设施现状·················································································...
