目录摘要........................................................................3ABSTRACT..................................................................4引言....................................................................61研究区概况.................................................................62数据与分析方法..............................................................72.1基本气象数据..........................................................72.2降水量时间序列分析....................................................72.2.1趋势分析法........................................................92.2.2突变分析法.......................................................102.2.3．cv计算...........................................................102.2.4．日极大值降水量频率分析...........................................113结果与分析................................................................133.1趋势性分析...........................................................153.2突变性分析...........................................................173.3CV计算分析...........................................................183.4日极大值降水量频率计算...............................................194结论......................................................................19参考文献.....................................................................32致谢........................................................................33友谊农场日极大值降水统计特征及频率计算摘要：利用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法、cv值计算，频率分析及计算，和变异区间的均值，对友谊农场1981-2010年间的降水量变化进行分析。结果表明:时间上，友谊农场各年日极大值降水量序列在时间整体上变化趋向并不明显，并且在取6，7，8，9月为特殊月，而在时间序列内部存在不同突变趋向，存在以6，7，8，9月的波动状态;友谊农场内部降水量序列在时间上没有显著的变化规律，然而在时间序列内出现突变趋势，即1998年开始呈下降趋势，至2009年开始呈上升趋势，存在与各行政分区主周期相同的波动状态。通过cv计算也可以发现，6，7，8，9月份的变异程度均大于每年日极大值降水量的变异程度，且七月份尤为明显。日极大值频率分析{20%，50%，75%}与计算，表示出友谊农场近30年的降雨量状况较良好。关键词：友谊农场趋势分析法Mann-Kendall突变分析法cv值计算变异区间的均值日极大值降水量的分析与计算StatisticalcharacteristicsandfrequencycalculationofdailymaximumprecipitationonfriendshipfarmAbstract::Trendanalysis,Mann-Kendallmutationanalysis,CVvaluecalculation,frequencyanalysisandcalculation,andthemeanofvariationintervalwereusedtoanalyzethechangeofprecipitationinfriendshipfarmduring1981-2010years.Theresultsshowthat:ontime,theannualmaximumdailyprecipitationseriesoffriendshipfarmisnotobviousintime.Andtaking6,7,8,Septemberasaspecialmonth,andtherearedifferenttrendsinthetimeseries.Therearefluctuationsin6,7,8,andSeptembercycles,andthevariationtrendofthewholefriendshipfarm'sprecipitationseriesisnotobviousintime.Butinthetimeseries,itshowedatrendofsuddenchange,thatis,itbegantodeclinein1998,andbegantorisein2009,andtherewasthesamefluctuationstateasthemaincycleofeachadministrativedivision.ThroughCVcalculation,wecanalsofindthatthevariationdegreeof6,7,8,Septemberisgreaterthanthatofdailymaximumdailyprecipitation,especiallyinJuly.Thedailymaximumfrequencyanalysis{20%,50%,75%}andcalculationindicatedthatthefriendshipfarm'srainfallinrecent30yearsisingoodcondition.Keywords:FriendshipfarmTrendanalysisMann-Kendallmu...
