人民币汇率改革的思考摘要：在对现行人民币汇率制度存在的问题，包括汇率的实际操作并不是真正意义上的市场价格，外汇市场是不完善的，目前的汇率制度，外汇储备过多的形成，中国的汇率制度缺乏弹性限制货币政策的有效性，中国的汇率自由浮动的条件缺乏。本文将人民币汇率政策提出改革建议，主要是培育健全的外汇市场，大力发展远期外汇市场，继续加强人民币利率市场化建设，提高中央银行的汇率调整机制，提高货币政策的影响，逐步实现人民币资本项目兑换。2010年6月19日，中国人民银行新闻发表的一份声明中表示：“中国人民银行根据国内和国际经济形势，中国的国际收支，中国人民银行决定进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革，增强人民币汇率的灵活性。”这意味着我们参考一篮子货币系统的回归，实现人民币将进一步升值。下面我们将考虑对中国的影响。本文从现状中国的人民币汇率的人民币汇率机制，分析其历史与人民币汇率改革的效果。与汇率机制改革做必要的思考，提出了对人民币汇率机制改革的几点建议。关键词：人民币、汇率、改革、思考AbstractInviewoftheexistingproblemsofcurrentRMBexchangerateregime,includingtheactualoperationoftheexchangerateisnotthetruesenseofthemarketprice,theforeignexchangemarketisnotperfect,thecurrentexchangeratesystemtheformationofexcessiveforeignexchangereserves,China'slackofflexibleexchangeratesystemrestrictstheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicy,China'slackofafreefloatingexchangerateconditions.ThispaperputsforwardthereformofRMBexchangeratepolicyrecommendations,mainlyistocultivateasoundforeignexchangemarket,vigorouslydeveloptheforwardforeignexchangemarket,continuetostrengthentheinterestratemarketizationofRMBconstruction,improvingthecentralbankexchangerateadjustmentmechanism,enhancetheeffectsofmonetarypolicy,andgraduallyrealizetheconvertibilityofRMBcapitalproject.InJune19,2010,thepeople'sBankofChinanewsspokesmanissuedastatementsaid:"accordingtodomesticandinternationaleconomicsituationandChina'sinternationalbalanceofpayments,thepeople'sBankofChinesedecidedtofurtheradvancethereformoftheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism,enhancetheflexibilityoftheRMBexchangerate."Thismeansthatourregressionwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencysystem,RMBwillachievefurtherappreciation.BelowwewillconsidertheeffectontheChinese.ThisarticlefromthecurrentsituationChinaRMBexchangerateofRMBexchangeratemechanism,analyzesthehistoryandthereformoftheRMBexchangerateeffect.Andthereformoftheexchangeratemechanismdothenecessaryconsideration,putsforwardsomeproposalsonthereformofRMBexchangeratemechanism.Keywords:RMBexchangeratereformthinking目录1引言................................................................................................................................................42人民币汇率改革的现状................................................................................................................52.1现行的人民币汇率制度存在的隐患.............................................................................62.1.1人民币存在高估现象..........................................................................................62.2形成机制方面存在不足.................................................................................................62.3不利于国内经济的稳定.................................................................................................62.4制约了货币政策的独立性.............................................................................................72.5增加了无风险套利的机会......................................................
